Tottenham Hotspur's hopes of finishing the Premier League (PL) season in 5th place have diminished.
The football statistics outlet 'Opta' updated the probabilities of each team entering the top five calculated by a supercomputer on the 17th (Korean time). Due to the results of the PL's 29th round, there have been some fluctuations. In particular, Nottingham Forest defeated Manchester City and firmly secured 3rd place, bringing them closer to qualifying for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) next season.
Liverpool and Arsenal, who are currently in 1st and 2nd place in the league, have already secured at least 5th place. Nottingham, Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Brighton & Hove Albion are fiercely competing for the remaining three spots.
According to results from 10,000 simulations run by Opta's supercomputer, the probability of Nottingham finishing in the top five stands at 85.6%, while Manchester City is at 78.4%. Newcastle and Chelsea follow with probabilities of 52.3% and 48.4%, respectively. Brighton has also achieved a 20.1% probability of entering 5th place.
This is not the end. Given the close point gaps, 9th place Aston Villa (7.7%), 10th place Bournemouth (5.3%), and 8th place Fulham (1.7%) still have some hope of reaching the top five.
Even 13th place Manchester United mathematically has a chance of finishing in 5th. Opta noted, "To emphasize how intense the competition is, Manchester United has finished in 5th place at least once in 10,000 supercomputer simulations." However, realistically, this is nearly impossible. Essentially, Manchester United and Tottenham are the only two among the so-called 'PL Big (BIG) 6' that are being left behind.
However, Tottenham's name was not mentioned. Up until the 28th round, calculations indicated that Tottenham could finish in 5th place with a probability of 0.001%, similar to Manchester United, but after a crushing 0-2 defeat to Fulham in the last match, they lost even that hope.
Tottenham's PL performance this season is quite simply the worst. Tottenham has not secured a victory in their last three league matches, accumulating 1 draw and 2 losses. Their ranking stands at 14th with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 15 losses). It would not be surprising if they fall further. They are currently tied on points with West Ham and Everton but have only just edged ahead in goal difference.
In the history of Tottenham, this is one of their most significant slumps. Tottenham currently holds 15 losses in 29 league matches. This is the highest number of league losses since the 2008-2009 season. If they slip further, they may break the all-time lowest rank of 15th set in the 1993-1994 season.
'Tottenham News' reported, "For those fans of Tottenham, the fact that there are still 9 matches left is truly frightening. They are having the worst season in recent history," and added, "Tottenham will face Chelsea, Liverpool, Nottingham, and Aston Villa and still have matches against higher-ranked Brighton and Crystal Palace. Fans will fear this."
Now, Tottenham's last hope lies in the UEFA Europa League (UEL). Their league campaign has long been lost, and they have been eliminated in both the League Cup (Carabao Cup) and FA Cup. Winning the UEL is essentially the only chance to qualify for European competition next season.
Currently, Tottenham has reached the quarterfinals of the UEL after a tumultuous journey. They faced a crisis after losing 0-1 to AZ Alkmaar in the Round of 16 first leg, but managed a turnaround with a 3-1 victory in the second leg played at home.
However, given Tottenham's ongoing poor performance, their prospects for victory are not bright. Additionally, their quarterfinal opponent is Eintracht Frankfurt, who are currently 4th in the Bundesliga.
Jamie O'Hara, a former Tottenham player, stated, "Tottenham's performance was once again truly terrible. They have been inconsistent throughout this season," adding, "Frankfurt is an excellent team. If they are eliminated from the UEL, there will be a farewell to Postecoglou."
If Tottenham fails to defeat Frankfurt and gets eliminated, head coach Ange Postecoglou may also be dismissed. Fans have long been chanting 'Postecoglou OUT.'
Tottenham News claimed, "Chairman Daniel Levy will definitely sack Postecoglou now. He has not won in three league matches, making it difficult to manage a Northern London giant club any longer," arguing that he should be fired immediately.
The Tottenham club is also looking for a successor to Postecoglou. According to the British 'Telegraph', Andoni Iraola, Bournemouth's head coach, and Marco Silva, Fulham's head coach, are among the candidates. The outlet reported, "If Tottenham fires Postecoglou, Iraola and Silva are strong candidates. As pressure to remove Postecoglou increases, alternatives emerge if Tottenham chooses to make a change."
The Telegraph also pointed out that there is a high possibility that Postecoglou's lifeline is tied to the UEL. The outlet explained, "The UEL will likely be crucial for Postecoglou's coaching prospects. It could save Tottenham's season, as it offers the chance for a trophy and for qualifying for the UCL."
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[OSEN = Ko Seong-hwan, reporter]