"Every time, it's just talk, but when it comes down to it, the results are different."
On the 11th (Korean time), China's 'Sohu' reported, "Chinese football officials believe that even if the World Cup is confirmed to have 64 countries, they cannot guarantee qualification for the World Cup," adding, "Even if Asia is given 12.5 or 13 tickets to the World Cup, it appears that the likelihood of qualification is only high on paper."
According to U.S. media outlets such as The New York Times and 'ESPN,' FIFA is considering a plan to hold the 2030 World Cup with 64 countries. However, this is a temporary event to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the World Cup. The idea was proposed by Ignacio Alonso, president of the Uruguayan Football Association.
The 2030 World Cup will be held in Morocco, Spain, and Portugal, and the opening match is expected to take place in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, where the first tournament was held. Chairman Alonso has also called for an expansion of participating countries. A FIFA Spokesperson stated through 'Reuters,' "At the end of the FIFA Council meeting, a proposal emerged under 'other' agenda items to hold the 2030 World Cup with 64 teams to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the World Cup. FIFA is obligated to analyze proposals from its council members, so this idea was also adopted as an agenda item."
For now, FIFA President Gianni Infantino was cautious. He said, "We need to accept the proposal and analyze it more closely," proceeding carefully. However, there is ample possibility that FIFA may push for the 64-country system for financial and political gains. The New York Times reported that the proposal received "astonishing silence" from meeting attendees, stating, "According to three attendees, FIFA is likely to be influenced by financial and political benefits just as much as by sports when making decisions."
Since the 1998 World Cup in France, the number of participating countries has remained at 32. However, from the upcoming 2026 World Cup in North America, the number of participants will expand to 48. Consequently, the total number of matches is expected to increase significantly from 64 to 104.
With the news of the 2030 World Cup, Chinese football is unable to hide its anticipation. China has not participated in the finals since the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup. Currently, in the ongoing qualifiers for the 2026 North American World Cup, China remains at the bottom of Group C and is at risk of elimination. If qualification falters again this time, it would mark a sixth consecutive failure.
However, if the number of participants increases to 64, China's chances of reaching the finals would likely improve. Sohu noted, "For the Chinese national team, which has long struggled at the brink of qualifying for the finals, this could be a gift from the gods," adding, "The situation for the Chinese national team is precarious. If they fail to take points in the two matches against Saudi Arabia and Australia, they could miss the playoffs. Even if they are fortunate enough to reach the playoffs, it would be difficult to avoid elimination."
Additionally, the media emphasized, "However, if the 2030 64-country structure can be realized, the landscape changes drastically. Currently, China cannot compete in the first league with traditional powerhouses like Japan, South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Australia. However, if 12.5 slots are guaranteed, they can compete for direct tickets to the finals against similar teams like Oman, Jordan, and Syria. Some fans expect that by then, China's chances of qualifying for the finals will exceed 70%!"
However, the feasibility of having 64 countries in the finals is deemed extremely low. If the number of participants in the 2030 World Cup is truly expanded to 64, the tournament period and match numbers will inevitably increase significantly. This has raised concerns that the already excessive match schedule will lead to player fatigue, injuries, and a decline in match quality.
The time for preseason preparation may also become tight, making it an unwelcome scenario for European clubs. In fact, as injuries have increased this season, there have been criticisms that tournaments like the Nations League and the Euro are problematic. Many star players have succumbed to injuries, prompting discussions about the tough schedules.
Having too many countries in the finals could also pose a problem. Currently, there are 211 countries affiliated with FIFA. If 64 of those, nearly a third, qualify for the finals, a decrease in match quality is unavoidable. Regional qualifiers may also effectively become meaningless facades.
Nevertheless, the reason FIFA continues to discuss expanding the number of participants seems to be 'the logic of money.' More countries participating naturally leads to increased revenue from spectators and broadcasting. Particularly, it could tap into emerging markets like China, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where football enthusiasm is growing.
However, within Chinese football, there is also speculation that even if the World Cup comprises 64 countries, it may not be related to China. Sohu reported, "When predicting the current capabilities and future of Chinese football, stakeholders believe that even if the World Cup becomes 64 countries, qualification remains uncertain. It only appears higher on paper."
Sohu noted, "Even if the World Cup is expanded, the matches will realistically be held, and everyone will be competing fiercely. Therefore, we cannot guarantee China's qualification for the World Cup," adding, "When it was said that 48 countries would participate in the 2026 North American World Cup, it was expected that China would definitely qualify. But the reality was different."
The media pointed out, "Unlike then, Southeast Asian countries are now actively naturalizing players, which has strengthened their capabilities beyond China. Frankly, there is no confidence that the Chinese national football team can defeat many national teams from Central Asia and West Asia," lamenting that, "Whether the World Cup consists of 48 or 64 countries, there is no guarantee for the Chinese national football team's participation in the World Cup."
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