The government's mandatory basic pension expenditure to support stable livelihoods in old age is expected to exceed 30 trillion won in 2030.
In the "2026–2030 National Fiscal Management Plan" submitted to the National Assembly, the mandatory basic pension expenditure is projected to reach 30.0862 trillion won in 2030.
This stems from the estimate that it will increase by an annual average of 6.8% from this year to 2030. A year earlier, it was projected to grow by an annual average of 6.7% for 2025–2029, but the growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage point (p).
Accordingly, the basic pension expenditure, which is 23.1378 trillion won in this year's main budget, is expected to be 25.653 trillion won in 2027, 28.297 trillion won in 2028, 29.1649 trillion won in 2029, and to surpass 30 trillion won in 2030.
Analysts say the outlook for an increase in mandatory basic pension expenditure reflects a rise in beneficiaries, higher payment amounts, and changes to payment methods.
In the National Fiscal Management Plan, the government explained that the basic pension is "projected to increase by an annual average of 6.8% during 2026–2030 due to a 'thick bottom, thin top' reform, an increase in the elderly population, inflation, and improvements to the couple reduction system."
In fact, the standard pension amount set under Article 5 of the Basic Pension Act was 342,510 won last year, but rose by 7,190 won (2.1%) to 349,700 won this year. As it reflects the inflation rate, it is expected to rise each year going forward.
On top of this, the government included in next year's budget plan a measure to provide 380,000 won—30,000 won more than currently—to the bottom 30% income group among seniors (3.48 million people). For couples in the bottom 45%, the reduction rate for the basic pension will be eased from a 20% reduction to 10%.
The national share of National Basic Livelihood Security benefits will also increase sharply. It is expected to rise from 22.4665 trillion won in 2026 by an annual average of 13.9% to 37.8352 trillion won in 2030. This reflects trends in raising the standard median income and expanding eligibility, as well as higher medical aid treatment costs.
Mandatory health insurance expenditure will also grow. It is projected to increase from 13.7991 trillion won in 2026 by an average growth rate of 5.6% to 17.1899 trillion won in 2030.
The government projected that expenditure for the long-term care insurance for older adults—which provides institutional or home care benefits to those aged 65 and older or to those requiring care for six months or more due to elderly diseases such as dementia or stroke—will be 3.0278 trillion won in 2030.