Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 at the 2026 North and Central America World Cup have narrowed further. In Group D, Australia and Paraguay drew in their group finale, giving both teams 4 points. Finishing the group stage with 3 points, Korea slipped another rung in the race among third-place teams from each group and is now effectively on the brink.
On the 26th (Korea time), the Group D qualifier between Australia and Paraguay at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in California ended in a draw. Both teams posted one win, one draw, and one loss to collect 4 points.
With one win and two losses to close the group stage, Korea fell again in the standings among the third-place teams from each group. With the 2026 North and Central America World Cup expanding the finals field to 48 nations, the top two from each group (24 teams) advance along with the eight best third-place teams from the 12 groups to make up the round of 32. Korea's final group-stage line is 3 points, a goal difference of -1, and 2 goals scored.
Currently, the third-place nations confirmed for the round of 32 are four: Sweden (Group F), Ecuador (Group E), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B), and Paraguay (Group D). From Hong Myung-bo's perspective, only four slots remain.
With Australia and Paraguay drawing, Korea slipped to sixth among third-place teams, further lowering its chances of advancing to the round of 32. According to the Athletic's "third-place tracker," the probability of reaching the round of 32 was 94% as of the previous day, but dropped to 68% after the Australia-Paraguay match. Currently fifth is Croatia (Group L), at one win and one loss, and even a draw in its next game would give it 4 points and likely secure a round-of-32 berth.
Korea is not yet eliminated. That is because some group finales remain from Group G through Group L. For Korea to reach the round of 32, the third-place teams in the remaining groups must finish with worse records than Korea. If points are level, the tiebreakers are goal difference, then goals scored, then fair play points.