The Korea men's national soccer team led by coach Hong Myung-bo lost its final group match of the 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup group stage and finished third in the group. Advancement to the round of 32 will be decided by results in other groups.
At 10 a.m. on the 25th (Korea time) at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico, in Group A's third group-stage match against South Africa, Korea lost 1-0.
Korea, which was second in the group with three points on one win and one loss, could have secured a round of 32 berth by preserving its position with even a draw in this game.
However, with the loss, South Africa advanced to the round of 32 as the group's runner-up. This is the first time South Africa has progressed beyond the World Cup group stage.
Mexico topped Group A with three wins. South Africa, with one win, one draw and one loss, is second; Korea, with one win and two losses, is third; and the Czech Republic, with one draw and two losses, is fourth.
In this tournament, the top two teams in each group advance directly to the round of 32. As a result, Korea, which is third in its group, will have its round of 32 fate decided by permutations.
This year's tournament is the first to feature 48 teams across 12 groups. The 24 nations finishing first and second in their groups advance directly to the round of 32, and an additional eight nations advance based on the third-place teams' points and goal differences.
Accordingly, Korea's advancement to the round of 32 depends on the third-round matches in Groups D through L. Four third-place teams across those groups must finish with fewer than three points, or, if level on three points, with an inferior goal difference to minus one.
Among Groups A, B and C, which have completed their third matches, Scotland, third in Group C, finished the group stage with three points and a minus-3 goal difference, placing behind Korea.
If three more such cases occur in the remaining group-stage matches in Groups D through L, Korea can reach the round of 32.
However, if there are many draws, it works against Korea's round of 32 hopes. Immediately, Bosnia and Herzegovina, third in Group B, has one win, one draw and one loss, one point more than Korea.
Also, in Groups G and H, the third- and fourth-place teams currently have two points and one point, respectively, so Belgium and Cape Verde, the current third-place teams, would move ahead of Korea with even a draw.
However, if Iran loses to Egypt, and if Uruguay loses to Spain, the third-place teams in those groups would finish with two draws and one loss for two points, which would favor Korea.
Therefore, Korea's round of 32 fate depends on the remaining matches in Groups D, E, F, I, J, K and L. In Group D, if Türkiye beats the United States by three goals, or if Australia and Paraguay draw, it is unfavorable for Korea.
In Group E, if Curaçao defeats Ivory Coast, or if Ecuador defeats Germany, Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 diminish.
In Group F, if Sweden and Japan draw, or if Tunisia beats the Netherlands by eight goals, Korea again is put in a tough spot.
In Group I, if Senegal beats Iraq by two goals or more, or in Group J, if Austria and Algeria draw, or if Jordan beats Argentina by scoring at least two goals, these scenarios also hinder Korea's path to the round of 32.
In Group K, if the Democratic Republic of the Congo defeats Uzbekistan, the third-place team would reach four points and move ahead of Korea. In Group L, if Ghana and Croatia draw, or if Panama upsets England, it is unfavorable for Korea.
Accounting for these permutations, Korea needs at least three third-place teams in Groups D, E, F, I, J, K and L to finish with fewer points than Korea's three, or, if level on three points, with a worse goal difference than minus one, to reach the round of 32.
Even if Korea reaches the round of 32, as a third-place team it would face the Group E winner or Group G winner. Germany leads Group E, and the Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand) winner will be decided on Aug. 2.