The Korea Meteorological Administration said that unless fossil fuel use is minimized, most regions nationwide except the Yeongseo area of Gangwon could shift to a subtropical climate in the latter half of this century.
On the 16th, the Korea Meteorological Administration analyzed the climate characteristics of 66 regions nationwide between 1981 and 2025 and announced these findings. The definition of subtropical climate follows the Trewartha criteria: the average temperature of the coldest month is 18 degrees Celsius or lower, and there are 8 to 12 months with an average monthly temperature of 10 degrees Celsius or higher.
Currently, most regions of Korea are in the temperate climate zone, and 14 locations meet the subtropical climate criteria. The number of domestic subtropical climate regions has continued to increase.
In a study using the 30 years from 1981 to 2010 as the baseline, the Korea Meteorological Administration found 13 locations in total: four points in Jeju (Jeju, Gosan, Seongsan, Seogwipo) and Mokpo, Wando, Yeosu, Namhae, Tongyeong, Geoje, Changwon, Busan, and Pohang.
In the study using the subsequent 30 years (1991–2020) as the baseline, Ulsan was added, increasing the number to 14. Using 2001–2025 as the baseline, it was the same as the previous baseline.
In the decadal analysis, the 1990s and 2000s had 14 regions classified as subtropical, the same as the 30-year baseline studies. However, in the 2010s, the count rose to 15 with Gwangju Metropolitan City included, and for 2016–2025, Uljin and Gangneung were also included, bringing the total to 17.
The Korea Meteorological Administration said that in future projections, under all climate change scenarios, by 2040 the climates of South Jeolla and South Gyeongsang, coastal areas nationwide, and some large cities would shift to subtropical, but the picture in the latter half of this century varied by climate change scenario.
In a low-carbon scenario applying advances in renewable energy technology, minimizing fossil fuel use, and an eco-friendly, sustainable economic growth model, the subtropical climate expanded somewhat inland.
However, in a high-carbon scenario with a passive push for climate change mitigation policies and increased fossil fuel use and city-centered development, most regions nationwide shifted to a subtropical climate.