The shortage of ballots at some polling stations in Seoul during the local elections on the 3rd is being discussed as a potential legal dispute. However, the legal community says that, separate from whether there were serious administrative flaws in managing the election, the odds that a court would allow a revote or invalidate the election are not high. The key criteria are whether any voters were actually deprived of the chance to vote, and whether the number was large enough to overturn the result of the Seoul mayoral race.
According to the political sphere on the 4th, in the 9th nationwide local elections for Seoul mayor, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon effectively clinched victory with 2,560,590 votes and 49.15% of the vote. The margin over Democratic Party of Korea candidate Chong Won-o (2,507,130 votes, 48.13%) was 53,460 votes. This is based on a 99.54% vote count.
Although two ballot boxes at Polling Station No. 2 in Jamsil 7-dong, Songpa-gu were not counted due to the ballot shortage, analysts say it is unlikely to affect the outcome given that those boxes contained about 2,000 ballots.
◇ The key to invalidating the election is whether the result was affected
The National Election Commission said that as of 6:20 p.m. on the 3rd, a shortage of ballots occurred at a total of 14 polling stations: 12 in Songpa-gu, one in Gangnam-gu, and one in Gwangjin-gu. It explained that in Songpa-gu, only about 50% of the number of registered voters' worth of ballots were printed. The commission convened an emergency meeting early on the 4th and said the incident does not constitute grounds for postponing the election or holding a by-election under the Public Official Election Act, nor can the vote count be halted.
The key site is Polling Station No. 2 in Jamsil 7-dong, Songpa-gu. There, the voting period was extended until 10 p.m. due to the ballot shortage. After that, a crowd gathered to block the removal of the ballot boxes, and two boxes could not be transported to the counting center. However, with roughly 2,000 uncounted ballots, even if all of them went to Chong, the margin would narrow only to 51,465 votes.
The legal community expects this arithmetic gap to be central to any legal judgment. Article 224 of the Public Official Election Act provides that an election shall be invalidated when there is a violation of election-related provisions and it is recognized that the violation affected the election result. Procedural flaws alone do not void an election; it must be separately proven that the flaws were substantial enough to affect the determination of the winner.
Attorney Kim Yeon-gi of Chungjeong LLC said, "Considering that voting was halted for hours at certain polling stations, the resumption was delayed by irregular methods such as handwriting serial numbers on ballots, and that voters who gave up waiting suffered an infringement of suffrage, violations of election-related provisions will likely be amply recognized."
However, Kim said, "Even if violations are recognized, if Mayor Oh Se-hoon won and the results from the polling district in question could not affect the outcome, an election-nullification suit will not be accepted."
On election day, some in the political sphere also raised the need to postpone the election and halt the count under Article 196 of the Public Official Election Act. Article 196 allows an election to be postponed when it cannot be conducted or has not been conducted due to natural disasters and the like. But this case is closer to a delay in voting at some polling districts, not the entire Seoul mayoral election being unable to be conducted.
Kim said, "Applying Article 196 of the Public Official Election Act is difficult," adding, "The election has already been held, and voting was underway and then halted in a specific polling district, so it is hard to deem this a situation where the election could not be conducted or was not conducted."
◇ Focus likely on finding the cause and preventing a recurrence rather than a revote
The possibility of a revote in certain polling districts is a separate issue. Article 198 of the Public Official Election Act stipulates that if voting could not be conducted in any polling district, the winner shall be determined after conducting a revote in that district. However, if it is recognized that a revote would not risk affecting the election result, the winner may be determined without a revote.
Ultimately, calls for a revote also face a high bar. The uncounted ballots at Polling Station No. 2 in Jamsil 7-dong are around 2,000, while the overall margin in the Seoul mayoral race is 53,465. Even if the court weighs whether to order a revote, the key criterion will inevitably be whether the result in that polling district could affect the determination of the winner.
A comparison often cited is the 2021 Berlin election in Germany. At that time, multiple errors occurred in Berlin, including ballot shortages, distribution of incorrect ballots, long waits, and continued voting after exit polls were announced, and some races led to new elections or revotes. However, a simple comparison is difficult because, under Korea's Public Official Election Act, separate from the existence of procedural flaws, the key question is whether those flaws affected the election result.
In Korea, during the 2022 presidential election there was controversy over poor management of early voting for COVID-19 patients, the so-called "basket voting." In a suit to invalidate the by-election for National Assembly member in Jung–Nam-gu, Daegu, the Supreme Court did not accept the claim to void the election.
Kim said, "In the basket voting case, the Supreme Court did not recognize a violation of election-related provisions at all," adding, "In this case, there is room to view it as a deprivation of the opportunity to vote, so a violation seems clear, but if it did not affect the result, the conclusion is likely to be the same."
Accordingly, the ballot shortage incident is likely to focus not on a revote or invalidation, but on identifying the cause and establishing measures to prevent a recurrence.