Although the government mandated a five-day rotation system for passenger cars in the public institutional sector due to the prolonged Middle East crisis, traffic volume on Seoul's morning commute on the first day of implementation appeared little different from usual.
Because the public institutional sector had already been enforcing the five-day rotation, analysts say the impact is limited. Some also argue that measures must be expanded to the private sphere to cut oil demand.
According to the Seoul city government on the 25th, traffic volume within Seoul from 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. was provisionally tallied at 973,114 vehicles. That was a decrease of only 5,321 vehicles (0.5%) from the 11th, two weeks earlier (978,435 vehicles). Traffic volume in the downtown area during the same period was 87,512 vehicles, down 0.8% (693 vehicles) from two weeks earlier.
Travel speeds also showed little change. From 7 a.m. to 9 a.m., the average driving speed in downtown Seoul was around 19 km, similar to the weekday average for this month (19.5 km).
◇ "First-day effect minimal"… limits without expansion to the private sector
Starting this day, the government mandated the five-day rotation for vehicles in the public institutional sector. Under the five-day rotation, driving is restricted by weekday according to the last digit of a license plate number. Because it was Wednesday, vehicles with license plates ending in 3 and 8 were not allowed to operate. The government also expanded coverage to include compact cars and hybrid cars, which had been exempt.
In Seoul, however, the added effect appears small because the five-day rotation had already been implemented mainly at public institutions. Public institutions located in cities and counties with populations of 500,000 or more have been operating the system.
The government is leaving private participation in the five-day rotation to "voluntary" compliance. Minister Kim Seong-hwan of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment said the previous day, "For now, the private sector will participate voluntarily, but if the resource security alert related to crude oil is raised from caution to warning, we are considering making it mandatory."
The problem is that it is difficult to gauge whether the Middle East crisis will drag on. If instability in oil supplies continues, calls are growing to expand demand-reduction policies to the private sector.
An official in the oil industry said, "Effects from supply restrictions are already appearing at industrial worksites, and if the war continues, conditions will deteriorate rapidly," adding, "I do not think it is appropriate to respond in a way that forces only the public institutional sector to bear the inconvenience."
Currently, about 1.5 million vehicles are subject to the five-day rotation in the public institutional sector. The government estimates that if the same criteria are applied to the private sector, excluding logistics and livelihood vehicles, about 23.7 million vehicles would be covered.
◇ If expanded to the private sector, 47,000 barrels a day could be saved
Given that the five-day rotation in the public institutional sector saves about 3,000 barrels of oil per day, calculations suggest that expanding it to the private sector could reduce demand by about 47,000 barrels. That is about 2% of Korea's daily oil consumption.
Experts say more sophisticated demand management policies are needed. Jeon Ui-chan, a Sejong University professor, said, "We can guide conservation efforts by focusing on corporations and large buildings with high energy consumption, and also consider a system that offers tax benefits based on results."
Some are also floating the option of easing or withdrawing the "oil price ceiling" on the grounds that price signals can naturally curb demand.
Yoo Seung-hoon, a professor in the Department of Energy Policy at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, said, "There is even talk of shortages in petrochemical products, including pay-as-you-throw trash bags," adding, "What is needed now is policy that focuses on supply stability rather than price stability." He added, "If the goal is to reduce oil consumption, accepting higher international oil prices could be one way."