"Buy one kimbap, get one free."
On the 22nd, the day after the group BTS's comeback concert, a convenience store near Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul had a notice that read this. The shelves were stacked with kimbap, sandwiches, and rice balls, and the notice was also written in English, Chinese, and Japanese.
With massive crowds drawn by the BTS concert, businesses around Gwanghwamun Square hoping for the so-called "BTSnomics" are experiencing wide differences depending on their type and location. Convenience stores and quick-meal shops near the venue enjoyed a boom, while restaurants and bars fell short of expectations and were left with inventory burdens.
◇ Convenience stores near Gwanghwamun "posted record sales"
According to the convenience store industry on the 23rd, CU said that as of the 21st, when BTS's comeback concert was held, sales at 10 stores increased 3.7 times from a week earlier. Looking only at three stores on the main road adjacent to the venue, sales jumped 6.5 times. At five GS25 stores near Gwanghwamun, sales on the 21st rose 3.3 times from the previous week. During the same period, E-MART 24 and 7-Eleven also saw sales increase 1.4 times and 2.2 times, respectively.
It appears that the crowds gathered to watch the concert bought many beverages and quick meals. A convenience store owner near Gwanghwamun said sales were "record-breaking."
◇ "Koreans" saw credit card sales drop by more than 40%
On the other hand, many said customer traffic actually fell compared with usual. A merchant who runs a restaurant near Seoul City Hall said, "From the morning, roads were controlled, buses skipped stops, and even the subway was rerouted, so there were almost no customers," adding, "Only one party came to a place that usually brings in several million won a day."
Some popular spots that usually have long lines at lunchtime could take orders right away on the concert day. A bakery near City Hall lamented that sales were cut in half from a week earlier.
According to Seoul's real-time urban data, sales around the venue on the 21st were 191 million–192 million won. That was more than 40% less than the 352 million–353 million won on the 14th. During the same period, the number of transactions fell more than 10%, from 11,897 to 10,487.
Seoul's real-time urban data are compiled based on Shinhan Card payments. Even considering that it does not capture expenditure by foreign visitors who came to the site on concert day, the "BTS effect" fell short of expectations.
A major factor was that the maximum number of visitors around the venue totaled only 104,000 by HYBE's count, far short of the expected 260,000. According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's crowd management system, about 62,000 people gathered around Gwanghwamun Square during BTS's concert time (8–9 p.m. on the 1st).
Restaurants that prepared several times more ingredients than usual in hopes of a "jackpot" ended up burdened with inventory as fewer visitors came than expected. Some convenience store headquarters agreed to compensate franchisees for losses on a portion of the ordered stock, but small business owners have few places to turn.
While high marks were given for the lack of safety accidents on the day of BTS's comeback concert at Gwanghwamun Square, criticism is rising over the failure to predict the crowd size.
Lee Byung-hoon, an emeritus professor in the sociology department at Chung-Ang University, said, "It was the result of inaccurate crowd forecasting meeting the unique risks of the Gwanghwamun commercial district," adding, "At its core, inventory management failed due to a flawed market forecast."