The comeback concert by the group BTS at Gwanghwamun Plaza in Seoul ended without any safety incidents. But because the actual crowd was far smaller than the expected maximum of 260,000, some noted that administrative resources were deployed excessively.
Analysts said the practice of designing safety measures based on the highest projected crowd size since the deadly crowd crush in the nightlife district of Itaewon had an effect.
According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety on the 23rd, the crowd management system estimated that about 62,000 people gathered around Gwanghwamun Plaza during the BTS concert hours (8–9 p.m.) on the 21st. HYBE estimated about 104,000.
During the same time slot, Seoul City's real-time urban data tallied about 46,000–48,000, while police estimated that 70,000–80,000 people gathered.
Results also vary with the telecommunications signal method depending on the baseline data and weighting settings. HYBE counted 104,000 by reflecting users of the three mobile carriers and budget phone services, plus estimated foreign attendees. By contrast, the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's crowd management system used signals from the three mobile carriers, and Seoul's real-time data was calculated by reflecting market share based on signals from SK Telecom and KT.
Even when using the telecom signal estimation method, results differ depending on how the baseline data and estimation weights are set. HYBE concluded that about 104,000 people stayed at the venue by adding estimated foreign attendees to users of the three mobile carriers and budget phone services.
The Ministry of the Interior and Safety's crowd management system (about 62,000) used signals from the three mobile carriers, while Seoul's real-time urban data (about 46,000–48,000) is a figure calculated by considering market share based on signals from SK Telecom and KT.
However, all the estimates differ from the previously expected maximum crowd of 260,000. Police expected that if people filled the area from Gwanghwamun to City Hall at two people per square meter, the crowd would reach 230,000, and if it extended to Sungnyemun, 260,000.
Multiple factors were cited for the smaller turnout. With a live broadcast on the video platform Netflix, many ARMY (the BTS fandom) appeared to enjoy the concert on smartphones and other devices.
In addition, major tourist sites including Gyeongbokgung Palace did not open for the concert day, inevitably reducing demand for downtown Seoul tourism unrelated to the show. Not only cars but also public transportation were controlled, and the requirement to pass through metal detectors at 31 gates to enter the venue is also cited as a reason fewer people turned out than expected.
As a result, with crowd projections missing the mark by a wide margin, some said administrative capacity and budgets were wasted. A local festival planner said, "Since the deadly crowd crush in the nightlife district of Itaewon heightened awareness of safety, preparations are made to match the larger figures (projections)," adding, "It's a structure that inevitably leads to overdeployment of administrative resources."
On the concert day, about 10,000 public officials, including police and fire personnel as well as Seoul City and the relevant local governments, were mobilized for crowd control and more. Considering that the average holiday pay for public officials (grades 9–6) is about 110,000 won, more than 1 billion won was spent on simple labor expense alone. The number of safety management personnel mobilized by HYBE was 4,800, fewer than the public officials.
Concerns were also raised that at similar events in the future, only public officials would be mobilized without precise crowd estimates. The Seoul regional chapter of the Korean Government Employees' Union said, "If the practice of filling gaps with public officials continues even for events with strong private planning characteristics, the burden will be passed on intact to public officials and citizens."