This year, Korea's annual average temperature is expected to be higher than normal.
According to the "2026 climate outlook" released by the Korea Meteorological Administration on the 23rd, there is a 70% chance that this year's annual average temperature will be higher than normal (the 1991–2020 average of 12.3–12.7 degrees), and a 30% chance it will be similar. The likelihood of it being lower than normal is projected at 0%. The expected increase is an average of 1.12 degrees, within a range of 0.6–1.8 degrees, which is not expected to exceed the annual average of 14.5 degrees recorded in 2024.
With anticyclonic circulation across the Northern Hemisphere—especially from Europe through Eurasia to East Asia—forecast to strengthen more than normal, temperatures in East Asia, including Korea, are projected to be higher than normal. The Korea Meteorological Administration expects East Asia to be 0.86 degrees higher on average and the globe to be 0.62 degrees higher on average.
Sea surface temperatures around Korea also have an 80% chance of being higher than normal. The expected increase is an average of 0.9 degrees, within a range of 0.4–1.3 degrees. Global sea surface temperatures are expected to rise by 0.49 degrees, and East Asia by 0.63 degrees. The Korea Meteorological Administration said, "A hot ocean fuels the heat."
With global ocean heat content (to a depth of about 2 km) recording a record high of 306 ZJ (zettajoules, 10 to the 21st joules) last year, sea surface temperatures around Korea and in the North Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans are remaining high. When sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans are high, high pressure develops and is related to Korea's heat waves.
Also, after April this year, there is a high possibility that El Niño will develop in the tropical eastern Pacific. When El Niño occurs, temperatures in Korea tend to rise.
Meanwhile, annual precipitation this year is projected to have a 50% chance of being similar to normal, a 30% chance of being higher, and a 20% chance of being lower.
In this outlook, the Korea Meteorological Administration used a "dynamical climate prediction model" that reflects not only historical observations but also recent climate change and future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. A range of factors were considered, including clouds, wind, humidity, sea temperature, salinity, ocean currents, sea ice area and thickness, soil temperature and moisture, vegetation, volcanic activity, solar activity, and aerosols.
However, an annual outlook shows "broad tendencies," and medium-scale weather phenomena such as typhoons or blocking events are difficult to predict.
Korea Meteorological Administration Administrator Lee Mi-seon said, "Since temperatures and sea surface temperatures are expected to be higher than normal this year, we should prepare for heat waves and high sea temperatures," adding, "Precipitation variability will also be large, so preparation is needed for droughts and torrential downpours."