Areas selected as pilot regions for rural basic income have become an "population black hole." As they absorbed the population of nearby areas, local governments selected as basic income pilot regions saw their populations increase, while surrounding local governments experienced a faster pace of population decline. Some noted this is a balloon effect triggered by stoking a sense of relative deprivation through discriminatory fiscal support between regions.
According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's resident registration population statistics on the 29th, the resident registration population of Sinan County, South Jeolla, last month was tallied at 41,545. That was an increase of 3,324 from 38,221 in January this year. The change rate reached 8.7%. Compared with the same period last year, when the increase was only 58, this is a dramatic population rise.
In Yeongyang, North Gyeongsang, last month's resident registration population was 15,793, up 484 from January. The growth rate was 3.16%. In the same period last year, it fell by 307 (-1.96%). In addition, every local government selected as a basic income pilot region—including Yeoncheon, Gyeonggi; Jeongseon, Gangwon; Cheongyang, South Chungcheong; Sunchang, North Jeolla; and Namhae, South Gyeongsang—posted resident registration population increases in the 2% range. It is a population change that makes moot the selection rationale that these were areas at risk of extinction due to population outflow.
This change appears to result from address changes concentrated in nearby rural and fishing villages, not return-to-farm or return-to-rural moves from the greater Seoul area. The cases of Sinan and Mokpo are representative. While Sinan County's population rose by more than 3,000 this year, adjacent Mokpo saw its population fall by 6,528. During the same period last year, Mokpo's population recorded a net decline of 3,722, but the drop has widened sharply this year. A Mokpo City population policy team official said, "We analyzed our population statistics internally and found that the number of people moving out to Sinan increased significantly," adding, "After Sinan was selected as a basic income pilot region, the outflow surged."
From the county's standpoint, a fiscal red light has turned on. When Sinan County applied for the basic income pilot program, it estimated a planned population of 39,816, but the actual population is 1,729 above that.
Sinan County plans to pay a monthly basic income of 200,000 won per resident. Of that, 95,000 won will be borne by the county, 60,000 won by the central government, and the remaining 45,000 won by the provincial government. If Sinan County's population increases by 1,000, the county would need to secure an additional 1.14 billion won, the central government 720 million won, and the province 540 million won. A Sinan County official said, "With next year's basic income program rollout, it will be difficult to secure funding for other projects."
A bigger problem is that a significant portion of the population increase may be false resident registrations. Son Jong-pil, senior research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said, "The sharp population increase after selection as a basic income pilot region can be seen as the policy's effect," adding, "Administrative measures are needed to screen out false registrations by people not actually residing there."
As concerns over fiscal burdens grow, local governments selected for the pilot are searching for ways to identify false registrants. They are discussing setting up a task force (TF) to judge false registrations or using resident councils at the eup and myeon level. The problem is that these administrative measures also entail expense. There are also concerns they could become a trigger for conflict between longtime residents and newcomers.
An official at a metropolitan local government said, "Conflicts between longtime residents and newcomers also broke out in Cheongsan-myeon, Yeoncheon, where basic income was first implemented," adding, "At the provincial level, controversies over discrimination between selected and non-selected areas are also burdensome."