A forecast has emerged that the days when both heat waves and tropical nights occur on the same day will increase by as much as 66 times by 2100.
According to the forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration, operated on the 3rd, the term 'compound extreme hot day,' which refers to the case where heat waves continue after both heat waves and tropical nights occur simultaneously, is projected to see atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise from the current 430 ppm to 1,089 ppm by 2100 in a high carbon scenario.
The high carbon scenario focuses on rapid industrial development, heavily utilizing fossil fuels and allowing for indiscriminate urban development. In this case, the current average of 0.85 days of compound extreme hot days (2000-2019) will increase to 5.5 days in the 2030s, 27.3 days in the 2060s, and 56.2 days in the 2090s.
In particular, the number of compound extreme hot days in Seoul, currently at 5.55 days, is expected to rise to 15.3 days in the 2030s, 49.3 days in the 2040s, and 84.8 days in the 2090s. In Gangwon Province, while the increase in compound extreme hot days is expected to be the smallest, it is projected to reach 41.2 days by the 2090s.
On the other hand, applying the climate change scenario as 'the development of renewable energy technology, minimizing the use of fossil fuels, and achieving environmentally sustainable economic growth,' the figures significantly decreased. In this scenario, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is projected to remain at 432 ppm by 2100. It is expected to increase to 6.3 days in the 2030s and 7.9 days in the 2060s, then decrease to 6.5 days in the 2090s.
The two scenarios mentioned earlier are extreme cases prepared for the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report's 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs).
Meanwhile, applying a moderate scenario (where carbon emissions gradually decrease, climate change is mitigated, and social/economic development occurs at a moderate level), it is said that the number of compound extreme hot days will increase to 6.4 days in the 2030s, 14.8 days in the 2060s, and 22.1 days in the 2090s.