A forecast says the dementia prevalence rate among people 65 and older in Korea will top 10% in 2040. As aging accelerates and the number of dementia patients grows, related medical expenses are also expected to rise.
According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare on the 6th, the dementia prevalence rate among people 65 and older in 2040, estimated based on the Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS) future population projections and the national dementia epidemiological survey results, is 10.34%. That means more than 1 in 10 older adults will have dementia.
The dementia prevalence rate dipped slightly from 9.17% in 2020 to 9.09% last year, but it is projected to turn upward. In 2050, it is expected to climb to 11.81%, with about 2.23 million dementia patients among 18.91 million people aged 65 and older.
Dementia medical expenses are also steadily increasing. According to the Health Insurance Research Institute of the National Health Insurance Service, medical expenses for dementia patients aged 40 and older reached 1.1557 trillion won in 2012, surpassing 1 trillion won for the first time. They then totaled 2.089 trillion won in 2016 and 3.0415 trillion won in 2020, exceeding 2 trillion won and 3 trillion won, respectively.
In 2023, they reached 3.3372 trillion won. Compared with 2013, that is a 141.4% increase over 10 years.
The concentration of medical expenses in the older population was even more pronounced among women. In 2023, among men's dementia medical expenses, those in their 80s accounted for 377.9 billion won and those 90 and older for 100.8 billion won. The two age groups made up 52% of total men's expenses.
For women, the figures were 1.3041 trillion won for those in their 80s and 683.9 billion won for those 90 and older. Those 80 and older accounted for 82% of total women's dementia medical expenses.
As aging advances rapidly, the burden of dementia medical expenses is expected to keep growing. Based on projections using a model that predicts dementia incidence and mortality risk, the Health Insurance Research Institute forecast total medical expenses in 2030 will reach about 3.7 trillion to 4.4 trillion won, depending on the scenario.
The research team said, "The number of people living with dementia will continue to increase and will be 1.3 to 1.5 times the 2023 level in 2030," adding, "Those 80 and older will account for more than half of all patients, and the share of women will likely remain around 65%."