Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa in the final Group A match of the 2026 North and Central America World Cup group stage, finishing third in Group A with one win, two losses, and three points. The path to advance directly to the round of 32 as group runner-up is closed, but elimination is not confirmed.
On the 25th, sports data firm Opta projected Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 at 87.6% after the match against South Africa. U.S. sports outlet The Athletic also put Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at 94%.
The reason the probability is high even though Korea lost the finale is related to the changed format of the 2026 World Cup. In this tournament, 32 countries advance from the group stage: the 24 teams that finish first and second in their groups, plus the top eight of the 12 third-place teams, move on to the round of 32. The Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) compares third-place teams in order of points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play score (team conduct score), and FIFA ranking.
Here, Korea's three points become a key cutoff between making the tournament and going out. Professor Chong Qi at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology ran 200,000 simulations of the 2026 World Cup group stage based on win, draw, loss probabilities and expected scoring distributions, and found that third-place teams with at least four points were almost certain to reach the tournament, while teams finishing third with three points had a 67.4% chance of making the round of 32.
That is because third-place totals cluster mostly around three points. In the simulations, three points accounted for more than half and were the most common for third place, followed by four points. Two or fewer, or five or more, were relatively rare. In a four-team group where each team plays three matches, third place is usually decided by records such as one win and two losses, three draws, or one win, one draw, and one loss.
Opta's analysis showed similar results. Opta simulated the 2026 World Cup 100,000 times to calculate round-of-32 advancement odds by points for third-place teams. In this analysis, teams with five or six points all advanced to the round of 32, and teams with four points advanced 99.81% of the time. Teams with three points advanced 66.77% of the time.
Data from past tournaments also shows that three points is the borderline. Reuters analyzed 38 past FIFA and continental tournaments held with 24 teams and reported that when third-place teams earned four points, most advanced to the next round, but teams with three points advanced at just under 50%. In the 24-team format, participants are divided into six groups of four, the 12 teams finishing first and second in each group advance to the tournament, and then four of the six third-place teams with the best records additionally reach the round of 16.
On the next criterion after points, goal difference, Korea is also relatively well positioned. With a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, a 1-0 loss to Mexico, and a 1-0 loss to South Africa, Korea recorded two goals scored, three conceded, and a goal difference of minus-1. Opta found that among teams with three points, those with a goal difference of zero advanced to the round of 32 at a 94.8% rate, and those with minus-1 advanced 84.2% of the time. When goal difference fell to minus-2 or lower, the chances of reaching the tournament dropped sharply.
In a paper, Professor Chong said, "Even with the same three points, goal difference varies by group composition and opponent strength; the weaker the fourth-place team, the easier it is for the others to build goal difference," and added, "In the end, the third-place team in that group can also gain an edge in the race for the round of 32."
References
arXiv (2026), DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.19554