Korea's national soccer team will play its final group match against South Africa on the 25th. If Korea draws or wins this match, it will advance to the round of 32 as Group A's No. 2. In that case, the round of 32 opponent will be Group B's No. 2.
But if it loses, Korea will finish third or fourth in the group depending on the result of the Czech Republic vs. Mexico match. Even if it holds onto third place, it is hard to immediately determine solely from Korea's result whether it will reach the round of 32 and, if it does, who it will face.
The reason the math gets complicated if it finishes third is that the path to the knockout stage has changed starting with the 2026 World Cup in North and Central America.
◇ Third place also goes to the round of 32… 495 possible scenarios
Since 1998, 32 nations have taken part in the World Cup, with only the top two from each of eight groups reaching the round of 16. The bracket was relatively simple. For example, Group A's winner met Group B's runner-up, and Group B's winner met Group A's runner-up, so opponents were set in advance.
This tournament will be the first ever with 48 nations. Under rules released by the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA), the 48 teams are split into 12 groups of four. The 24 teams that finish first or second in their groups go directly to the round of 32, and they are joined by eight third-place teams with the best records. In other words, the bracket changes depending on which groups' third-place teams survive. The number of ways to choose eight groups out of 12 is 495.
If Korea finishes third in Group A, it will be directly affected by the new rules. First, Korea must rank among the top eight of the 12 third-place teams. FIFA compares third-place teams by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct points, and FIFA ranking.
Even if Korea clears that hurdle, the opponent is unknown. On FIFA's bracket, Group A's third-place team can face Group E's winner, Germany, or Group G's winner, depending on the combination of third-place qualifiers. Even after Korea's match ends, the round of 32 opponent can be set only after weighing the results of other groups' third-place teams.
This complexity also appears for teams that have already reached the round of 32 as group winners. U.S. sports outlet SB Nation said in a June 22 report (local time) predicting the U.S. team's round of 32 opponent that "the United States has clinched first in Group D, but its round of 32 opponent could be one of the third-place teams from Groups B, E, F, I, or J," calling it "a complicated problem entangled with 495 possible scenarios."
Still, some say that opening the door to the round of 32 for third-place teams allows more sides to remain in the survival race until the end of the group stage. This structure increases variables and raises the chance that an unexpected team reaches the knockout stage. The Guardian forecast that this expanded 48-nation tournament could produce more upsets.
◇ Can the complicated bracket be simplified?
Research has also emerged on how to design the bracket under the 48-nation format. Chong Qi, a professor of physics at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, analyzed the current World Cup system and proposed alternatives in a paper posted on the preprint site "arXiv" on the 17th.
Chi found the problem with FIFA's current approach in a structure where all group outcomes are intertwined. Because the 12 third-place teams are compared all at once, a third-place team's fate in one group is tied to results in entirely different groups. He said this structure makes it hard to predict the path through the knockout stage. He also noted that under the current bracket, it is not completely ruled out that teams meeting in the same group could meet again after the round of 32.
As an alternative, Chi proposed splitting the 12 groups into four zones of three groups each. From each zone, the three group winners, the three runners-up, and the two best third-place teams within that zone would advance. This would create a mini eight-team tournament in each zone. It compares third-place teams only within the same zone, not across all 12 groups at once.
He also proposed leaving each zone's group winners in place to serve as the bracket's central axis, while moving runners-up and third-place teams to other zones according to rules. By placing teams that advanced from the same group into different zones, the structure would prevent early knockout rematches.
In the paper, Chi added, "Under the newly proposed system, bracket paths become simpler, and it is easier to predict which route each team will take through the knockout stage," and "it can greatly improve competitive fairness and the predictability of scheduling."
References
arXiv (2026), DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.19554