The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said an El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is a phenomenon in which rising sea temperatures near the equator in the Pacific trigger extreme weather around the world. When El Niño intensifies, the United States and China see floods while Southeast Asia, Australia, and Africa face drought. Scientists warned that with fertilizer supplies down this year because of the Iran war, El Niño on top of that could sharply reduce agricultural output in less developed countries.
The National Weather Service under NOAA said on the 11th that "the probability that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific monitoring region will exceed 2 degrees Celsius is 63%, so we issued an El Niño watch." The Korea Meteorological Administration predicted that El Niño will become moderate or strong in the coming fall.
El Niño is the preceding phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO refers to a global climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific fluctuate periodically. It is divided into El Niño, when sea surface temperatures are higher than average, and La Niña, when they are lower. Both terms come from Spanish meaning "boy" and "girl," and both have a major impact on Earth's climate.
◇ Crisis sensed since April, likely to bring floods and droughts
El Niño is defined as a condition in which the three-month average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific monitoring region stays at least 0.5 degrees above normal for five months or more. According to observational data, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific approached the El Niño threshold from late April to mid-May. Meteorologists used this to anticipate a recurrence of El Niño months in advance.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Apr. 24 that sea surface temperatures are surging and El Niño is expected around May to July. On the 2nd, it offered a more specific outlook, saying there is an 80% chance of El Niño occurring from June to August. The WMO projected more than a 90% chance that El Niño will persist at least through November.
NOAA's latest announcement is nearly double the probability of sea temperature rise it projected in May. NOAA forecast that by November, tropical Pacific sea temperatures will rise by 2.4 degrees, releasing heat and moisture into the atmosphere and disrupting weather patterns worldwide.
El Niño typically peaks in the Northern Hemisphere winter and drives global temperature increases into the following year. In fact, the El Niño events of 2023 and 2024 coincided with the two hottest years in the meteorological record. Scientists warned that 2027 is likely to set a new heat record.
Experts warned that this year's El Niño could exceed a 3-degree Celsius rise in sea surface temperatures and become the largest on record. Malte Stuecker, a University of Hawaii professor who heads the International Pacific Research Center, said, "This year's El Niño is hard to find a parallel for," adding, "With global warming underway, this would be quite catastrophic."
◇ War-driven fertilizer shortages raise fears of a food crisis
The extreme weather triggered by El Niño varies by region. While floods may strike the southern United States, East Africa, and parts of China, drought and wildfire risks may rise in Indonesia, Australia, and southern Africa. This year, war has made matters worse. The Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, sharply cutting fertilizer supplies and potentially bringing a food crisis to less developed countries. To make matters worse, humanitarian aid from advanced economies has also been cut back in succession.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift, told The New York Times that day, "El Niño means 'no rain, crops withering, food prices rising, and once again families being pushed to the edge,'" adding, "In East Africa in particular, this will hit communities that have already suffered severe blows from drought and floods in recent years."
Domestic experts warned that El Niño could also bring extreme weather such as torrential downpours to Korea. They further warned that disruptions to food supplies could lead to an economic crisis.
Cho Cheon-ho, former head of the National Institute of Meteorological Research, said, "There is a lag of several months before El Niño in the equatorial Pacific affects Korea through atmospheric circulation," adding, "Rather than immediate changes from El Niño, we should proactively prepare for extreme weather this winter and next summer."
Cho predicted that this winter, temperatures nationwide will rise above normal and moist air from the south will flow in, sharply increasing precipitation (snow and rain). Next summer, as the North Pacific high shifts southwestward and the stationary front becomes more active, temperatures are likely to fall centered on the southern regions, with a high chance of torrential downpours.
Oh Jae-ho, CEO of NanoWeather (emeritus professor at Pukyong National University), said, "This year's El Niño should be recognized not as a simple climate event but as a risk factor that could threaten national food security and economic security." Korea's food self-sufficiency rate is only about 25%, so abnormal weather in major producers of wheat, corn, and soybeans could immediately translate into higher food prices and unstable imports. Oh proposed, "To diversify supply chains, Korea needs to build a national early warning system that monitors and forecasts in real time the weather and climate conditions, crop situations, and yield outlooks in major grain-producing countries."
References
NOAA (2026), https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters
WMO (2026), https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-may-2026