Green-blue adaptation, which uses green space and waterways such as creating urban parks, restoring wetlands, and improving rivers, is cited as a leading urban strategy in the era of the climate crisis. Green space lowers extreme heat, and wetlands and rivers absorb or channel rainwater during heavy downpours, reducing flood damage.
But a study found that such climate adaptation policies can unintentionally drive up home prices and draw in new residents, heightening housing insecurity for existing low-income residents.
A research team led by Kim Seung-gyeom, a professor in the KAIST Department of AI Future Studies, said on the 18th that, in a joint analysis with researchers from Peking University and New York University Shanghai of cities in 32 African countries, they confirmed that green-blue adaptation policies can boost urban resilience while also facilitating "gentrification." The findings were published in April in the international journal Nature Cities.
Gentrification refers to the phenomenon in which the local environment improves and outside populations move in, pushing up home prices and rents and, as a result, displacing original residents. The researchers analyzed whether climate adaptation policies actually cause gentrification.
The researchers tracked changes across 5,503 administrative units in 221 urban areas in 32 African countries from 2005 to 2024. They combined satellite imagery with social and economic data and used a difference-in-differences method comparing before and after implementation to examine the impact of climate adaptation facilities.
The analysis found that areas with green-blue adaptation facilities saw a comprehensive gentrification index about 41% higher on average than areas without them. Prices of dwellings rose about 13%, and inflows of outside populations also increased significantly.
This study is the first large-scale empirical analysis to causally identify the relationship between climate adaptation and gentrification across the African continent. It shows that climate adaptation facilities such as parks and waterways can make cities safer and more pleasant while also raising real estate values in those areas, which can burden vulnerable groups.
The researchers emphasized that future climate policy should not stop at expanding green space and water spaces. They said housing stability measures such as supplying public housing, protecting land ownership rights, and recouping development gains must be put in place together so that the benefits of climate adaptation do not concentrate on specific groups.
Kim Seung-gyeom said, "Climate adaptation policies can make cities safer, but at the same time they can drive up home prices and population shifts, heightening housing insecurity for existing residents," adding, "Going forward, we need to consider not only environmental improvements but also protecting vulnerable groups and ensuring housing stability."
References
Nature Cities (2026), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-026-00432-0