A study has found that a very small molecule in the blood may be an important clue for predicting short-term survival in older adults.
Researchers at Duke University and the University of Minnesota said on the 10th (local time) that a small RNA molecule in the blood, piRNA, can predict the two-year survival probability of people ages 71 and older. The findings were published in the international journal Aging Cell in Feb.
RNA is a molecule that transmits or regulates genetic information in the body. If DNA is the blueprint, RNA can be likened to the instructions that help the blueprint be put to use. Among them, piRNA is a very small RNA fragment known to be involved in regulating cell development, tissue regeneration and immune activity.
The team, noting that piRNA may be related to aging and survival, analyzed more than 1,200 blood samples from adults 71 and older. They then examined correlations between 187 clinical factors—including age, cholesterol, physical activity and lifestyle—and 828 small RNA fragments using AI and Machine Learning methods. Participants' survival status was later confirmed through national death records.
As a result, a combination of just six specific piRNAs could predict two-year survival in older adults with up to 86% accuracy. It outperformed traditional clinical factors.
Also, older adults who survived longer tended to have lower levels of certain piRNAs. The researchers explained that this suggests piRNA may not be a simple marker but could be directly involved in aging and longevity.
Virginia Byers Kraus, a professor at Duke University School of Medicine who led the study, said, "Little is known about piRNA in the blood, but we learned that the lower the levels of certain piRNAs, the better," adding, "High levels may indicate abnormalities in bodily functions. Understanding the cause could aid the development of new treatments that support healthy aging."
The reason this study is drawing attention is its practicality. Blood tests are relatively simple and minimally burdensome. If a piRNA-based test is applied in clinical settings, physicians could identify short-term health risks in older adults earlier and tailor nutrition management, exercise prescriptions and medication adjustments.
Kraus added, "This study shows the potential to assess short-term survival in older adults with a relatively simple, minimally burdensome blood test," and "the ultimate goal is to help people stay healthier as they age."
The researchers plan to determine whether exercise, diet and drug therapy can change piRNA levels. They also plan to examine whether glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) drugs, which have drawn attention recently as obesity and diabetes treatments, are related to changes in piRNA.
References
Aging Cell (2026), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/acel.70403