Patient groups said the government's decision to increase medical school enrollment over five years starting with the 2027 academic year prioritizes educational conditions over the essence of physician workforce projections, and falls short of preventing gaps in essential and regional care.
In a statement released on the 10th, the Korea Patient Organization Coalition said, "The scale of the increase finalized at the 7th Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee is not the result of scientifically derived physician workforce projections, but was cut back according to an administrative logic of dispersing educational burdens," adding, "This decision directly contradicts the purpose of establishing the Workforce Projection Committee."
On the same day, the committee adopted the ARIMA model, among 12 models presented by the Workforce Projection Committee, reflecting changes in the future medical environment and policy variables. According to this model, the physician shortfall in 2037 is estimated at 4,724.
However, citing medical school educational conditions, strengthening the role of national universities, and securing appropriate enrollment for small medical schools, the government capped the 2027 increase at 490, with phased hikes of 613 in 2028–2029 and 813 in 2030–2031. As a result, the cumulative increase over five years totals 3,342, or about 75% of the initially projected shortfall.
The coalition said, "We express deep regret that the scientifically derived projection was reduced by as many as 1,182 under the banner of 'medical school educational conditions,'" stressing, "The expansion of medical school enrollment must be pursued solely based on future patient demand and objective workforce indicators."
It also noted that reducing the necessary number of physicians due to temporary burdens in the educational field will ultimately entrench shortages in essential care and shift the harm onto patients. The coalition said, "This adjustment could lead to gaps in the essential-care workforce that must be supplied on time, and it carries a high risk that future patients will once again endure emergency room drift and a pediatric care crisis."
It also called for strong post-management mechanisms to ensure the effectiveness of increasing enrollment at regional medical schools. The coalition argued, "To end the structural distortion of personnel trained at regional medical schools flowing into Seoul-area residency hospitals, the Ministry of Education's policy of 'reclaiming enrollment quotas for failure to complete regional training' must be enshrined in law."
It added, "To achieve the original goal of this increase—addressing gaps in regional medical services—the requirements for completing regional training should be set as strict indicators, and the government must take decisive administrative action to immediately reclaim allocated quotas from universities that do not comply."
It also stressed that expanding medical school enrollment must not be reduced to simply increasing numbers. The coalition said, "Fixing the quota is not the end but the start," adding, "Without sufficient financial support for improving the educational environment—such as expanding clinical training resources and reinforcing faculty—the medical community's concerns will become reality."
It further warned, "An ill-prepared, forced increase will lead to weaker professional competence among medical personnel, and the resulting risk and social costs will be passed directly onto patients," adding, "The government must recognize soberly that increasing enrollment without guaranteeing the quality of education can threaten the public's right to health and patients' right to life."
The coalition also made clear that the aim of increasing medical school enrollment is to revive essential and regional care on the brink of collapse. It said, "Expanding medical school quotas is not an end in itself but a minimum national measure to normalize emergency rooms, pediatrics, and regional medical settings," adding, "The government and the medical community must stop further wasteful conflict and take responsible action to create a medical environment where patients can feel at ease."
The coalition emphasized, "The government must fulfill its duty to implement policy without wavering, and the medical community should not remain in opposition but fulfill its responsibility to provide quality medical education," adding, "We once again urge sincere participation in efforts to save essential and regional care."