The government plans to decide by the Lunar New Year holiday on the 2027 academic year medical school admissions quota for current high school seniors. The number of medical school seats to be added annually from the 2027 academic year for five years is expected to be set between at least 1,930 and up to 4,200.
On the 22nd at a public forum on training physicians held by the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Jung-gu, Seoul, Shin Hyeon-ung, head of the health care policy office at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), said, "Based on six models, the projected physician shortage in 2037 ranges from at least 2,530 to as many as 4,800," and added, "If we apply the assumption that from the 2030 to 2037 academic years a total of 600 additional physicians will be produced by a public medical school (400) and newly established regional medical schools (200), the actual increase will fall between 1,930 and 4,200."
Divided over five years, that would mean adding 386 to 840 per year, but whether to distribute the increase evenly for five years or ramp it up in stages has not been decided. This year's medical school intake is 3,058, and the added seats will be allocated under the regional physician track.
All of the added seats this time will be selected under the regional physician track. According to the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), outside the greater Seoul area there are only 0.46 essential-care specialists per 1,000 people. The figure in the capital region is four times that, at 1.86. Essential care sees high workloads and litigation risks, making it widely shunned. Even the available workforce is concentrated in the capital region.
Deputy Minister Shin said, "Even if we expand medical school quotas, the regional physician track can solve the problem of physicians flocking to the capital area or popular specialties." Shin also noted, "Because it takes a long time for someone who enters medical school under the regional physician track to graduate, train at a hospital, become a specialist, and settle in the region, measures to prevent attrition during this process must also be provided."
The regional physician track recruits medical students on the condition that they graduate from a provincial medical school and are required to remain and work in that region for at least 10 years. During medical school, the national and local governments support admission fees, tuition, dormitory costs, and more. If graduates do not complete the 10-year mandatory service after medical school, their medical license may be revoked following corrective orders.
Kim Seong-ju, head of the Korea Serious Disease Association, said, "Roughly 10 years (the baseline for projections) is not time that patients can wait," adding, "It is a matter of whether they can receive treatment today and live." Kim emphasized, "This (training of physicians) must not become the result of a political compromise."
Cho Seung-yeon, Director of surgery at Yeongwol Medical Center, said, "Even if we recruit more physicians, won't they all end up in Seoul's Gangnam getting hair transplants anyway?" and added, "As demand for health care grows, what matters now is how to draw physicians into regional, essential, and public care."
By contrast, the Korean Medical Association Organization says next year's medical school quota should be frozen and discussions should begin with the 2028 academic year quota.
Ahn Deok-seon, head of the Korean Medical Association's Medical Policy Research Institute, said, "We should not present a single (physician workforce) number as if it were the correct answer," adding, "Even overseas in France and Germany, they increased physicians but they did not move to the regions." Ahn argued, "Policy should come first and the (shortage) projections should follow, but the order has been reversed by doing the projections first and then discussing the public medical school policy."
The Ministry of Health and Welfare plans to decide the scale of the medical school quota increase from the 2027 academic year and announce with the Ministry of Education around April how many seats each university will receive. Once each university's medical school quota is set, schools will obtain approval from the Korean Council for University Education, draw up their admissions plans, and post the application guidelines around May. Second Vice Minister Lee Hyeong-hun of the Ministry of Health and Welfare said, "We will guarantee a healthy future for the public," adding, "We hope this forum will serve as an important milestone in deciding physician workforce policy."