Minister Jung Eun-kyeong of the Ministry of Health and Welfare reaffirmed the plan to set medical school enrollment based on the projections produced by the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee, despite pushback from the medical community.
In her opening remarks at the third meeting of the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee held at the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (HIRA) on the 13th, the Minister said, "The projections by the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee have real-world constraints, but they are the best results carried out based on data that can be forecast at this point and a process that can be agreed upon."
She added, "The methodology for projections and the data collection system must continue to be improved," but also noted, "We now plan to deliberate on the size of the physician workforce after 2027 based on the projection results."
The Minister said, "At the last meeting, there were various inquiries about the projection process and results," adding, "Commissioners will have sufficiently understood the characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of each demand and supply model through explanations from the chair of the estimation committee and the head of the estimation center." She went on to explain, "At today's meeting, we will hold discussions to make concrete the deliberation criteria on how to apply the results derived from the demand and supply models presented by the estimation committee."
At the meeting, a key agenda item was using the entire increase in medical school enrollment after 2027 as slots under the regional physician system.
The regional physician system is a scheme to train and secure doctors on the condition they work for a set period in medically underserved areas. It is divided into a "service type," in which medical school freshmen are selected, receive support such as tuition, and must serve for 10 years, and a "contract type," in which existing specialists sign contracts with the state, local governments, or medical institutions and work for 5 to 10 years.
Also included for deliberation were the establishment of a public medical academy (tentative name), and the scale of workforce training and the timing of physician output if a medical school is newly established in a region without one.
Regarding changes in the future medical environment and health care policy, all combinations of the three demand models and two supply models adopted by the estimation committee will be reviewed. On ensuring the quality of medical education, discussions covered limiting the increase in the 2027 medical school enrollment to below a certain level compared with the 2026 admissions quota (3,058 students), and taking into account the educational conditions of small medical schools. The reality that students admitted in the 2024 and 2025 academic years are attending classes simultaneously was also included as a review factor.
To improve predictability and stability in applying quotas, a plan was discussed to apply the quotas for five years from the 2027 to 2031 academic years based on the 2025 projections. Considering that students entering during that period will graduate between 2033 and 2037, 2037 would be set as the reference year for supply and demand management, and the next workforce projection would be conducted in 2029.
Based on the discussions, the committee plans to prepare multiple scenario-based proposals for the scale of physician workforce training and submit them at the next meeting.