The obesity drugs that rocked the global pharmaceutical market last year are expected to lead the new drug boom again this year. Clarivate, an international scholarly information service corporations, said on the 6th (local time) that Eli Lilly and Company's oral obesity drug Orforglipron and its triple-acting obesity injection retatrutide were included on this year's list of drugs to watch.
Since 2013, Clarivate has annually selected therapies expected to achieve breakthrough results in patient care and commercial success with sales of more than $1 billion, releasing them in its "Drug to Watch 2026" report. This year, 11 new drugs were chosen, including two obesity treatments developed by Eli Lilly and Company.
◇ Lilly and Novo expected to square off again in obesity drugs this year
Eli Lilly and Company and Denmark's pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk launched glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 class obesity drugs, and last year their sales surpassed Keytruda, the immune-oncology drug that had been the world's No. 1 medicine.
GLP-1 class obesity and diabetes treatments—Lilly's zepbound and Mounjaro (ingredient name tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic (semaglutide)—were tentatively tallied last year at $35.8 billion (52.2357 trillion won) and $35.6 billion (51.9475 trillion won), respectively. During the same period, sales of Merck (MSD)'s immune-oncology drug Keytruda were $31.5 billion.
Clarivate estimated that Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 new drug under development by Eli Lilly and Company, will generate $11.1 billion (16.1971 trillion won) in the obesity treatment market and $5.2 billion (7.5862 trillion won) in the diabetes treatment market this year. However, there may be overlap because the patient populations intersect. Retatrutide is also expected to generate $10 billion (14.5890 trillion won) as an obesity drug and $20 billion (29.1780 trillion won) as a diabetes treatment.
GLP-1 is a hormone secreted from the small intestine after meals. It promotes insulin secretion from the pancreas to lower blood sugar and suppresses glucagon, which raises blood sugar. Drugs that mimic GLP-1 reduce appetite in the brain and slow the rate at which food leaves the stomach, increasing satiety and reducing body weight. They were originally introduced as diabetes treatments to lower blood sugar, and then developed into obesity treatments after their weight loss effects were confirmed.
Clarivate said, "Orforglipron and retatrutide are the archetype of next-generation metabolic disease therapies," adding, "With an oral form that is convenient for patients and a triple-acting mechanism with excellent weight-loss effects, their treatment scope could extend from brain health to kidney disease."
Clarivate projected that the obesity drug market will grow to about $150 billion (218.8350 trillion won) by 2035. Drugmakers are targeting the market with follow-on medicines that reduce side effects of existing therapies and are easier to take. The pharmaceutical industry expects Lilly and Novo Nordisk to wage fierce competition again this year over the GLP-1 class obesity drug market, as they did last year.
Novo Nordisk won FDA approval last month for a pill version of Wegovy. Orforglipron, which Clarivate predicts will receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in March this year, can be seen as a pill version of zepbound. Wegovy and zepbound are set to compete again in oral form. Retaglutide, expected to receive FDA approval as early as year-end, is a triple-acting agent that mimics two other receptor proteins in addition to GLP-1, and is expected to be more effective with fewer side effects than zepbound.
◇ J&J, Sanofi, BMS, and Otsuka also draw notice
Beyond Eli Lilly and Company, U.S. company Johnson & Johnson (J&J) also placed two drugs on the list. The bladder cancer treatment Inlexzo won FDA approval in September last year, and the new drug Icotrokinra, which treats autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis, is expected to launch this year. The industry expects the two drugs to post sales of $1.8 billion (2.6265 trillion won) and $1.5 billion (2.1888 trillion won), respectively, in 2031.
Other global drugmakers were also keeping blades hidden. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) in the United States has mezigdomide for multiple myeloma, a hard-to-treat blood cancer, which is expected to launch this year and generate $1.5 billion in sales in 2031. GSK's Exdensur (depemokimab) was approved in December last year to treat severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis.
Switzerland's BeOne Medicines (formerly BeiGene) has once-daily oral cancer drug BGB-16673, which has already been selected for FDA priority review and is expected to launch in 2027. Clarivate said, "This drug has the potential to change the treatment paradigm for B‑cell hematologic cancers," adding, "Sales of $1.2 billion (1.7510 trillion won) are expected in 2031."
France's Sanofi added tolebrutinib, a multiple sclerosis treatment, to the list of drugs to watch, and Japan's Otsuka Pharmaceutical is expected to launch the kidney disease treatment VOYZACT(sibeprelimab) this year, with sales projected at $955 million (1.3935 trillion won) in 2031. U.S. company Celcuity's anticancer drug gedatolisib is also slated to launch this year, with $1.1 billion (1.6049 trillion won) expected in 2031 sales. Cocept Therapeutics developed relacotilant to treat Cushing's syndrome—which causes a moon-shaped face—and ovarian cancer, and is awaiting FDA approval in July this year.
References
Clarivate (2026), https://clarivate.com/drugs-to-watch/