The Health Care Policy Review Committee has begun discussions on medical school enrollment quotas for the 2027 academic year and beyond. The government said it will respect the projections for physician workforce supply and demand, but will determine the training scale by also considering policy judgments such as strengthening essential and public health care in the regions and educational conditions.
On the afternoon of the 6th, the committee held its second meeting at Conference House Dalgaebi in Jung-gu, Seoul, and received an official report on the mid- to long-term supply-and-demand projections from the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Projection Committee. At the meeting, Chairperson Kim Tae-hyun of the Projection Committee and Shin Jeong-woo, head of the Health Care Workforce Projection Center, attended and explained the projection process and key results.
Minister Jung Eun-kyeong of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, who serves as Chairperson, said in her opening remarks, "All Commissioners recognize that mid- to long-term physician workforce projections have legal limitations that make it difficult to fully predict future medical use patterns, technological advances, and changes in work patterns."
She added, "Based on the latest data observable at this point and assumptions that experts can agree on, we derived the projection results using a scientific, data-centered methodology."
The comments are seen as mindful of criticism from the medical community about "unscientific, hasty administration." The Korean Medical Association Organization earlier said, "If the government, pressed by the admissions schedule, arrives at a half-baked conclusion, it will again repeat a national mistake like the 'increase of 2,000 medical school seats,'" adding, "Thorough scientific verification and a realistic consideration of educational conditions must come first."
Jung also drew a clear line between the roles of the Projection Committee and the review committee. Jung said, "The Projection Committee, which focuses on data and methodology, and the review committee, where representatives of demand and supply participate to make policy judgments, are complementary, but their roles are clearly different."
Jung also emphasized the importance of policy judgment surrounding the size of the physician workforce. Because "the size of the physician workforce directly affects people's right to life and health by providing essential and public medical services in the regions," it is "not simply a matter of applying numbers but an area that requires policy considerations and judgment."
The review criteria for medical school enrollment quotas were also reaffirmed. The Ministry of Health and Welfare has presented five principles, including the need to take into account medical schools' educational conditions and quality of education, to ensure predictability for universities and students, and to present quotas while considering the projection cycle.
Jung said, "At the first meeting, we organized policy judgment criteria on the premise of respecting the projection results," and explained, "To guarantee people's right to life and health, we set a goal of improving access to essential and public health care in the regions and securing the necessary workforce in a stable manner."
Jung went on to say, "We must comprehensively consider factors that affect the demand and supply of the physician workforce, such as changes in population structure, advances in health care technology, and the work environment," adding again, "Changes in health care policy are also an important factor in judgment."
The Ministry of Health and Welfare plans to hold weekly review committee meetings throughout January to discuss the size of the medical school seat increase and to reach a conclusion before the Lunar New Year holiday. Once the committee decides the quota for the 2027 academic year, the Ministry of Education will allocate it to the 40 medical schools nationwide. As each university must then go through follow-up procedures such as revising school regulations and changing admissions tracks, the explanation is that the quota must be finalized by mid-Feb. at the latest.
Earlier, the Projection Committee forecast that, based on people's medical use, there will be a shortage of between 5,704 and up to 11,136 physicians by 2040. Even applying the minimum estimate, calculations show medical school quotas need to increase by about 570 students each year over the next 10 years. Accordingly, some expect the seat increase to be set between 500 and 1,000.
That is why the possibility of "rekindled conflict between the government and doctors" is being raised after the review committee's decision. The "class of '24-'25 medical student representatives" issued a statement on the 5th, saying, "Before the debate over increasing seats, the already-deteriorated educational environment for medical students must be examined."
The group said, "At many medical schools, the classes of '24 and '25 are currently being taught simultaneously," adding, "As a result, problems that undermine the quality of education—such as a shortage of lecture halls and labs, overburdened faculty, and reduced opportunities for clinical practice—have already emerged or are expected to emerge."