Debate over the supply of doctors is losing steam in front of the "numbers." The Committee for Projection of Physician Workforce Supply and Demand (the projection committee), which is estimating the number of doctors needed in the future to adjust medical school enrollment, has delayed drawing its final conclusion. The projection committee is said to be likely to present an estimate that about 18,000 doctors could be lacking nationwide in 2040.
◇ Doctor shortage forecast for 2040 overlaps again with the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's grounds for expansion
At the 11th regular meeting held on the 22nd, the projection committee discussed several scenarios estimating supply and demand for doctors in 2040 but failed to reach a final conclusion. The plan was to release the projection results at the end of the day, but the Commissioners decided to hold an additional meeting on the 30th to continue discussions.
On the premise that 89.6% of the current medical school enrollment (3,058) enter clinical practice and up to 20% of doctors aged 65 or older retire, the projection committee estimates the 2040 supply of doctors at about 131,498. Depending on scenarios that vary overall medical utilization, per-capita utilization, and the weighting of inpatient versus outpatient care, demand was presented at a minimum of 145,993 and up to 150,237. Taken together, the calculation indicates a nationwide shortage of at least about 14,000 and as many as about 18,000 doctors in 2040.
However, the Commissioners failed to bridge differences over the premises and methodology for estimating demand for doctors. In particular, opinions reportedly split over how much to factor in advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technology as variables. Some Commissioners argued that "projections that do not sufficiently reflect future changes in the medical environment could lead to excessive expansion," while others countered that "AI is not yet at a level to replace doctors in clinical settings."
These projection results are not much different from the outlook previously presented by the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Last year, then-Second Vice Minister of Health and Welfare Park Min-soo said, citing studies by the Korea Development Institute (KDI), the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), and Seoul National University, that "if the current level is maintained, there will be a shortage of about 15,000 doctors by 2035."
Based on this, the government pushed to increase medical school enrollment by 2,000, but the medical community pushed back against the credibility of the evidence and the way it was announced. The projection committee was then launched with a pledge to discuss physician workforce projections more transparently and rationally, but with a similar order of magnitude now being mentioned again, some say the very purpose of launching the committee is being put to the test.
◇ Medical community's "concern about excessive expansion" vs. Welfare Ministry's "the projection committee only presents a range"
The medical community expresses strong distrust of the overall projection methodology. The Korean Medical Association Organization criticized that "the projection committee is rushing to draw conclusions without discussions on key variables and methodology, rather than conducting a scientific projection based on social consensus." The point is that results are being hurriedly produced without sufficient review of key variables such as demographic structure, changes in the medical delivery system, and medical accessibility.
The association also voiced concern that "advances in AI and Digital Healthcare technologies were not reflected in the projections." Even though technological progress is changing the productivity and work structure of doctors, the projection committee is proceeding with calculations based only on past medical use patterns. The association stressed that "as physician workforce projections are important policy grounds that will determine the direction of future medicine, both the process and the results must be transparent and scientific," adding that "procedures to verify through seminars and explain to the public are necessary."
Above all, the medical community is concerned that the government's policy interpretation of the range presented by the projection committee could lead to an excessively large actual increase. Minister of Health and Welfare Jung Eun-kyeong said on a radio program on the 17th that "we plan to decide medical school enrollment for the 2027 academic year and beyond at the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee after making a policy judgment based on the projection committee's results."
The Welfare Ministry is keeping some distance during the discussions. A key official at the ministry said, "The projection committee operates as an independent committee composed of experts, and the ministry does not even receive interim reports." The official added that "projection is not about fixing a specific number, but a process of presenting an estimated range based on various assumptions," drawing a line against some views that the government predetermined a conclusion and is steering the committee.