As global warming accelerates, extreme weather disasters such as floods and droughts are occurring more frequently and severely worldwide. In particular, high mountain areas, where perennial snow is melting, are the regions most directly affected by climate change.
Recently, Professor Gam Jong-hoon of Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) and his research team released a shocking outlook through international collaborative research, suggesting that Pakistan could experience "super floods" and "severe droughts" that it has never faced before on a periodic basis. This study was published in July in the atmospheric science international journal, Environmental Research Letters.
The research team focused on Pakistan. The country is home to major rivers, including the Indus River, which play a vital role in sustaining life; however, fluctuations in precipitation and snowfall caused by climate change have made water resource management increasingly difficult. In particular, Pakistan, as a vulnerable Global South nation in terms of climate change, lacks the economic and technological infrastructure compared to developed countries, resulting in insufficient research to address the climate crisis. The Global South refers to countries that contribute little to climate change but are relatively more exposed to its risks.
To overcome these limitations, the research team utilized artificial intelligence (AI). Existing climate models have failed to adequately reflect the characteristics of high mountain areas like Pakistan, leading to problems of underestimating the changes in complex terrains such as narrow valleys and steep mountain ranges or overestimating precipitation. The research team greatly enhanced the predictive accuracy of past unusual climate phenomena by training and simultaneously applying several AI models while comparing past river flow data with actual observed values.
The data corrected by the AI model showed much higher reliability than existing models. The analysis revealed that, in the upper reaches of the Indus River, unprecedented large floods and severe droughts could recur approximately every 15 years, while nearby rivers are expected to experience a shorter cycle of about 11 years. This suggests that the Pakistani government needs to move away from a uniform water management policy and establish tailored response strategies suited to the characteristics of each river basin.
This study clearly shows the role that science and technology must play in the era of the climate crisis. Technologies for predicting and preparing for extreme floods and droughts are directly linked to protecting human lives and livelihoods.
Professor Gam Jong-hoon noted, "The AI technology developed this time will significantly reduce the uncertainties of climate models" and added, "It will play an important role in producing reliable climate data not only for Pakistan but also for other high mountain areas and water-scarce countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and lack observational data."
References
Environmental Research Letters (2025), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf130