An analysis revealed that even if cigarette prices are raised, the effect fades after 4 months. It suggests that people addicted to tobacco do not quit smoking but rather stockpile cigarettes. The warning images attached to cigarette packages were also found to have little impact.
The Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) noted on the 18th in its report titled 'The effect and implications of cash support policies to induce changes in individual behavior' that it analyzed changes in cigarette sales before and after price increases from January 2014 to December 2023.
The analysis found that sales temporarily decreased immediately after the price increase. However, after 4 months, cigarette sales recovered to their normal levels. When the government announces a price increase, people stockpile cigarettes, and once those are depleted, they begin purchasing again.
According to the report, a 10% increase in cigarette prices resulted in only a 4.2% to 4.4% decrease in sales. This is attributed to the fact that people already addicted to nicotine are not significantly affected by a temporary price hike.
The report suggests that it would be better to steadily increase cigarette prices annually in line with consumer prices. If prices are rising while cigarette prices remain the same, it effectively means that prices are actually falling. It explains that continuously raising cigarette prices in line with inflation can prevent such issues.
The warning images placed on cigarette packages were also not very effective. The warning images were introduced at the end of 2016 to convey the message that smoking is harmful to health. However, the report stated, "While there was an effect when the warning images were first introduced on cigarette packages, over time, smokers became accustomed to the warnings," adding that it is interpreted as not having a significant impact on cigarette sales.