A study has found that simply achieving "carbon neutrality" by stopping carbon dioxide emissions is not enough to prevent the risks of powerful typhoons and heavy rainfall.
On the 7th, Professor Min Seung-ki of the Pohang University of Science and Technology POSTECH Department of Environmental Engineering and researcher Moon Min-cheol noted that climate simulations showed that even if carbon neutrality is achieved, strong typhoons and extreme rainfall could persist for hundreds of years, highlighting the necessity of "carbon reduction" or "carbon negative" strategies to decrease carbon in the atmosphere. This research was published in June in the international academic journal "Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)" within the field of climatology.
As global warming progresses, typhoons are becoming increasingly powerful, and the damage is escalating across coastal cities, rural areas, and logistics industries. While countries are setting carbon neutrality as a goal by 2050, there is no clear answer on how the climate will change after achieving carbon neutrality.
The research team simulated changes over 400 years under two scenarios: "carbon neutrality" and "carbon reduction," using a large-scale global climate model. The carbon neutrality scenario refers to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero, while carbon reduction is a more proactive approach that involves removing carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere.
The analysis found that even achieving carbon neutrality did not decrease the risk of typhoons. While the number of typhoons decreased in the Northern Hemisphere, it increased in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in an asymmetric distribution of typhoon activity that persisted for 300 years. Furthermore, the intensity of each typhoon making landfall and the amount of rain pouring down upon landfall significantly increased. Although the number of typhoons decreased, those that did occur became more intense and dangerous.
In contrast, the carbon reduction scenario showed significantly different results. The asymmetric typhoon distribution was resolved within 200 years, and the intensity of typhoons and extreme rainfall events notably decreased. It has become evident that merely halting carbon emissions is not enough, and actively reducing the already accumulated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is essential to fundamentally prevent climate disasters.
Professor Min Seung-ki emphasized, "Even if carbon neutrality is achieved, the risks of powerful typhoons and extreme rainfall could persist for centuries," and asserted that "to prevent this, proactive climate response strategies such as carbon reduction and tailored regional measures must be implemented together."
References
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2025), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01122-9