The forecast predicts an 86% chance that the average temperature of the Earth will rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the transfer period within the next five years. There is also an 80% likelihood of a year being hotter than last year, which was the hottest on record, and there are concerns that the temperature increase could exceed 2 degrees.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its 'Global 1-10 Year Climate Update (GADCU) report' on the 28th. This report is prepared annually under the leadership of the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office, and this year it integrated and analyzed the results of 220 climate prediction models from 14 institutions, including the Korea Meteorological Administration.
According to the report, the average global temperature is predicted to be 1.2 to 1.9 degrees higher than the transfer period each year from 2025 to 2029. Last year's report predicted that from 2024 to 2028, it would be 1.1 to 1.9 degrees higher than the transfer period. There is also an 80% chance that at least one year in the next five years will be hotter than last year, the hottest on record.
In particular, the likelihood that the average global temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees compared to the transfer period during at least one year between 2025 and 2029 has reached 86%. The chance that the average temperature for the entire five years will exceed 1.5 degrees is 70%. These figures represent an increase of 6 percentage points and 23 percentage points, respectively, compared to last year's report. 1.5 degrees is the baseline that the Paris Agreement established to limit the rise in global temperatures. Experts have warned that exceeding this threshold could sharply increase the intensity and frequency of climate disasters, such as heatwaves, droughts, and rising sea levels.
There is even a 1% chance that the temperature increase will exceed 2 degrees during at least one year in the next five years. However, it is expected that the temperature increase from 2015 to 2034 will remain below 1.5 degrees at 1.44 degrees.
The research team predicted that the temperature increase in the rapidly warming Arctic region over the next five winters would average 2.4 degrees, which is over 3.5 times larger than the global average.
Koe Barret, deputy secretary-general of the WMO, noted, "We have experienced the hottest decade on record, and this WMO report indicates that this trend will continue in the coming years," emphasizing, "It is essential to provide science-based tools and information to decision-makers through continuous climate monitoring and forecasting."