Jeon Hae-won, a professor at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), and Gao Fei-chao, a professor at Beijing Normal University, published research results noting a dilemma that the world must reduce agricultural land area to combat climate change. The research findings were published in the international journal "Nature Climate Change" on Dec. 24.
In 2015, the world promised through the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in global average temperature to within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period (1850–1900). Since then, countries have been responding by setting greenhouse gas reduction and carbon neutrality targets.
The research team precisely analyzed what impact achieving the 1.5-degree scenario could have on actual agricultural land and food systems. They conducted a detailed measurement of global land system changes using high-resolution data in units of 5㎢, considering not only simple area changes but also land use methods and intensity.
As a result, if policies to achieve the 1.5-degree target are implemented, global agricultural land area is predicted to decrease by approximately 12.8%. This conclusion is contrary to previous studies that suggested an increase in agricultural land. Notably, South America is expected to see a 24% decrease, suffering the largest impact, while 81% of the total agricultural land reduction is projected to occur in developing countries.
The background of agricultural land reduction lies in changes in land use. For instance, in order to reduce greenhouse gases, increasing forest areas or expanding the cultivation of biofuel crops as alternatives to fossil fuels results in the conversion of existing agricultural land to other uses. Professor Jeon Hae-won explained that "the tendency to restore forests that were converted to farmland in the past or to convert low-efficiency farmland into biofuel production sites becomes more pronounced in the 1.5-degree scenario."
A larger issue concerns food trade. The export capacity of key food-exporting countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina is expected to decrease by 10%, 25%, and 4%, respectively, which could threaten food security in countries reliant on food imports. Overall, food export capacity is projected to decrease by about 12.6%.
Professor Jeon Hae-won noted, "When establishing a global decarbonization strategy, it is essential to consider sustainability across various sectors," adding that particularly developing countries may face the dual challenge of reduced agricultural land and increased dependence on imports, necessitating international cooperation to achieve carbon neutrality while ensuring food security.
Nature Climate Change (2025), DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1