The asteroid '2024 YR4,' which raised concerns about a potential collision with Earth, had a collision probability that once exceeded 3%, but recent observations indicate it has decreased again to around 1%.
On the 19th (local time), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 has dropped to 1.5%. Just a day earlier, NASA had stated that the collision probability for this asteroid was as high as 3.1%. This is the highest value among potential collision scenarios predicted for asteroids of similar or larger sizes compared to 2024 YR4.
An asteroid is a small celestial body that orbits the Sun in a long elliptical orbit. 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27 last year through the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) telescope located in Chile. Its diameter is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters. If it were to collide with Earth, it could potentially destroy an area with a radius of about 50 kilometers. This is similar in scale to the 'Tunguska event' (with a length of 30 meters), which destroyed 2,150 square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908.
NASA noted, "As additional observations continue, the accuracy of predicting where this asteroid will be on December 22, 2032, will increase," adding, "New observations of this asteroid are expected to take place in the coming days to weeks, and accordingly, the collision probability may also fluctuate." NASA estimated the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon at 0.8%.
The asteroid previously recorded as having the highest collision probability with Earth was 'Apophis,' discovered in 2004. At that time, the calculated collision probability for 2029 was as high as 2.7%, but it was later confirmed that the asteroid would pass by Earth based on accumulated observational data. Experts believe that like Apophis, the collision probability for 2024 YR4 will gradually decrease over time.
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