On the 8th (local time), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced that the asteroid "2024 YR4" has a 2.2% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. This is an increase from the 1.3% probability reported last month, representing an increase of 0.9%. Experts note that as additional observational data is gathered, the likelihood of a collision will likely converge towards zero.
The diameter of 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters, comparable to the size of a large building, and if it were to collide with Earth, it could potentially completely destroy an area with a radius of about 50 kilometers. This is analyzed to be similar in scale to the "Tunguska asteroid," which struck in 1908 and destroyed a 2,150 square kilometer forest in Siberia and was about 30 meters long.
The Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) under NASA announced last month that the collision probability for 2024 YR4 was 1.3%, but it later fluctuated, rising to 1.7% and then decreasing to 1.4%. In this month, the probability rose to 2.3% on the 6th before slightly dropping to 2.2% on the 7th. Generally, the average probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth while orbiting around it is 0.7%, making the current probability for 2024 YR4 relatively high.
Experts pointed out that fluctuations in collision probabilities before an asteroid approaches Earth are common, and they believe that the likelihood of a collision will gradually decrease over time. The asteroid "Apophis," discovered in 2004, was once considered one of the most threatening asteroids to Earth, but an accurate orbital analysis in 2021 confirmed that its chance of collision over the next century is virtually zero.
The European Space Agency (ESA) stated through its official YouTube channel that "if additional data is reflected in the coming weeks or months, the probability of collision for 2024 YR4 will effectively be zero." Molly Barber of NASA's Research Institute also noted that "there have been several asteroids that were included in the official collision risk list in the past, but their risk levels dropped after further data analysis," adding that "the more data that is secured, the more the collision probability can change."