Donald Trump’s second administration officially launched on the 20th (local time). With Trump returning to the presidential office after four years, various sectors are busy weighing the pros and cons. The science and technology sector is no exception. During Trump’s first administration, interest in the science and technology fields was low. President Trump did not have an official science advisor for nearly half of his first term (2017–2021). He appointed his first science advisor, Kelvin Droegemeier, in the second half of his term, but Droegemeier had limited influence as he was not given an official advisory position.
Since President Trump was elected in November last year, there have been many concerns about whether this trend would continue in the second administration. However, many responses indicate that this time is different. In particular, investment in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum science and technology, and space exploration is expected to increase and receive greater attention during the Trump 2.0 era.
◇Trump builds science and technology advisory team, stating 'Ensure U.S. technological superiority'
The biggest difference from Trump's first term is the appointment of Michael Kratsios as head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). The OSTP coordinates the overall science and technology policy of the United States. During the administration of former President Obama, physicist John Holdren led the OSTP, guiding the Obama administration’s overall science and technology policy. However, in Trump’s first administration, the head of the OSTP remained vacant for half of the term, and the organization was greatly downsized.
However, ahead of the launch of the second administration, President Trump appointed AI expert Kratsios as head of the OSTP. Unlike Droegemeier, who did not receive an advisory position, Kratsios was granted formal advisory status. Professor Holdren noted in an interview with Nature, "The appointment of Kratsios to an advisory position is a good decision for both President Trump and Kratsios himself."
David Sacks, former Chief Operating Officer (COO) of PayPal, is expected to be appointed as the 'AI and cryptocurrency czar' of the Trump administration. He will also serve as the chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), composed of external research and industry experts. Robotics expert Lynne Parker has been tasked with assisting Kratsios and Sacks. President Trump stated that his science advisory team, consisting of Kratsios, Sacks, and Parker, will "drive scientific innovation explosively and ensure the U.S. technological superiority, opening an era of innovation."
Local evaluations of Trump’s new science advisory team are generally positive. Kenneth Evans, a science policy researcher at Rice University, commented to Nature, "Kratsios was one of the few bright spots in Trump’s first administration," while Tobin Smith, senior vice president for government relations at the Association of American Universities (AAU), assessed that "Kratsios is someone who knows technology better than science but understands science."
◇AI and quantum technology as the new frontline in U.S.-China competition
During Trump’s first administration, investments in areas such as AI, quantum science and technology, and advanced manufacturing increased. This trend continued under the Biden administration as well. Experts predict that this trend will be maintained in Trump’s second administration. Eunkyung Ko, a research fellow at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), stated, "Considering the OSTP appointments announced at the end of December and David Sacks’s prominent role, it seems to focus more on technology than basic science, indicating that the Trump administration is likely to activate the development of AI technologies more than before."
There are also explanations that investments in AI and quantum science and technology are part of Trump’s policy toward China. AI and quantum science and technology have emerged as the new front in U.S.-China competition, and in this context, investments in AI and quantum science and technology are viewed as a form of technological arms competition rather than just research and development.
In 2020, during his first administration, Trump announced plans to establish 12 national AI and quantum information science (QIS) research institutes across the United States. There is a high likelihood that this investment trend will continue into the second administration.
Space exploration is also expected to benefit under the Trump administration. The Trump administration is likely to utilize SpaceX's private launch vehicle instead of the Space Launch System (SLS) that NASA is developing for Mars exploration. The SLS costs $4 billion per launch, facing criticism for being high-cost and low-efficiency. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and a close ally of Trump, has repeatedly criticized NASA’s inefficiencies. Jared Isaacman, who has been nominated as the new head of NASA, is reported to hold a similar stance to Musk.
Nature predicts that these changes will rather benefit the U.S. space exploration sector. NASA's deep space exploration program, the Artemis project, has faced several delays. Meanwhile, China has already begun its crewed lunar exploration plans, and other competitors such as Europe and India are quickly catching up with the U.S. Nature stated, "Musk has strongly expressed the will for humans to migrate to Mars, and he wants to achieve this with SpaceX's Starship," suggesting that he might expedite plans to send astronauts to Mars ahead of NASA's.
◇Infectious diseases and environment sectors face clouds
The 'anti-science' trend of Trump’s first administration has not completely disappeared. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nominated as the Secretary of Health and Human Services in the second administration, is a prominent vaccine skeptic in the United States. Kennedy has expressed the view that research and support for infectious diseases should be increased rather than for chronic diseases like obesity or diabetes.
Kennedy has also shown distrust toward policies like water fluoridation and school vaccination programs. However, such policies are often decided at the state or local level rather than by the federal government, suggesting that Kennedy's influence may be limited.
Experts believe that the 'right-to-try' policy implemented during Trump’s first administration may be reinstated. The 'right-to-try' allows patients for whom existing approved treatments are ineffective and who are unable to participate in clinical trials of new drugs to use drugs that are still in clinical trials. Holly Fernandez Lynch, a bioethics researcher at the University of Pennsylvania, stated, "The Trump 2.0 administration is likely to be skeptical of scientifically proven methods, while maintaining an open attitude towards those with no scientific basis."
There is a possibility that research on the environment aimed at combating climate change will be reduced. During Trump’s first administration, regulations on harmful chemicals, greenhouse gases, and pollution were relaxed or abolished. Environmental research by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also likely to be among the areas subject to reduction.
Trump nominated New York State Assemblyman Lee Zeldin as head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Zeldin, a longtime supporter of Trump, is likely to reduce EPA personnel and relax pollution regulations. The nomination of Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy, as Minister of Energy also has significant implications. With Wright, a major figure in the oil industry, taking the helm of the Department of Energy, areas like clean energy pilot projects could be pushed aside.
Trump is also expected to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, from which the Biden administration has rejoined. This could lead to other countries, including China, feeling less pressure to address climate change.
◇Korea to be inevitably affected... 'Accelerating state-centered innovation competition'
Experts state that changes in Korea’s position and status are expected in Trump’s second administration. Given the likelihood of U.S.-China conflicts manifesting in the science and technology sector, Korea's science and technology policy should take into account these external changes.
Hyun-ik Lee, a deputy researcher at the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI), said, "The core of the hegemonic competition between the United States and China is about who can monitor and respond to the other more extensively and intricately using science and technology," adding, "We have valued privately-led innovation competition centered around Silicon Valley so far, but in the future, the U.S. is expected to focus on achieving state-centered advanced science and technology capabilities." Lee also emphasized, "It is important for Korea to find its share in the gaps created by these changes."