Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, projected that it would take 20 years for quantum computers to be commercialized, leading to a sharp decline in the stock prices of related corporations. The stock price of quantum computing corporation IonQ fell by 39%, while Rigetti Computing (RGTI) dropped by 45%, and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) decreased by 36%, marking a significant downturn for quantum computing corporations.
The controversial remarks were made on Jan. 7 (local time) at the world's largest IT technology exhibition, the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), held in Las Vegas. Huang said, "If it takes 15 years to come out with a very useful quantum computer, that would be considered quite early," adding, "If it's 30 years, it would likely be a late time frame, and many people would probably believe in 20 years."
The scientific community has anticipated the commercialization of quantum computers within 5 to 10 years. Huang's remarks represent a much more conservative outlook than this.
However, on Jan. 9, domestic quantum technology experts questioned Huang's views during the 'K-Quantum Square Meeting.' There were many differing opinions on the criteria for Huang's "useful quantum computer." Sang-wook Han, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST), noted, "Since it is not clearly known what level of a useful quantum computer Huang is referring to, the intention is ambiguous," adding, "It is likely that he has based his outlook on a stage that is technically fully matured, similar to graphic processing units (GPUs)."
Han further remarked, "In the field of quantum technology, Huang has closer cooperation with Google than with IBM," suggesting that "IBM has an optimistic outlook on quantum technology, while Google takes a more conservative view, indicating a difference in perspectives."
Professor Jae-wan Kim from the Institute for Basic Science, regarded as a leading expert in quantum technology in the country, stated, "If Huang is referring to a quantum computer capable of breaking encryption, there are already sufficiently industrially applicable technologies at the current stage of development," explaining that "even at the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) level, there are applications such as molecular structure analysis and new drug development." NISQ refers to a stage that cannot correct for 'quantum errors,' which is considered the biggest disadvantage of quantum computers and is the current technology level where quantum computers remain.
Professor Kim said, "If Huang predicts that a quantum computer capable of breaking complex encryption will be commercialized in 20 years, that implies a very high level of technology."
Professor Yeon-wook Jeong from Sungkyunkwan University also agreed with this viewpoint, stating, "In the United States, which is already leading in quantum technology, industries applying quantum computers are beginning to emerge," and added, "Although still at an early stage, it has reached a point that is sufficiently significant for industrial purposes."
Overseas experts are also directly refuting Huang's comments. Allen Baratz, the CEO of D-Wave Quantum, said in an interview with CNBC, "Corporations like Mastercard and Japan's NTT Docomo are already using quantum computers," and added, "The point of commercialization for quantum computers is now."
There are also opinions suggesting that the quantum technology industry needs to strive harder. Yoon Ji-won, CEO of domestic quantum technology corporation SDT, stated, "Seeing how the stock prices of corporations fell due to one person's remarks in this situation, it suggests that the current quantum industry ecosystem is not in proper shape," and added, "Huang's remarks seem to imply whether quantum computer corporations will still be around in 20 years."