“Next stop launch.”
This was a post made by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos on X (formerly Twitter) on Dec. 28 last year. Bezos also shared a video showing the first stage engine test for "New Glenn," the reusable launch vehicle of his space corporation, Blue Origin, which is preparing for launch.
New Glenn is finally set to fly. According to Blue Origin and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) on the 6th, New Glenn is scheduled to launch this week from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The approved launch window for New Glenn is from January 6th to 12th. According to foreign media specializing in space news, it is highly likely that the launch will take place between 10 p.m. on the 9th and 1:45 a.m. on the 10th Pacific Standard Time, which is in the afternoon on the 10th Korean time.
New Glenn is a two-stage rocket that stands 98 meters tall and has a diameter of 7 meters. It is designed to carry a maximum payload of 13 tons to geostationary orbit (GEO) and up to 45 tons to low Earth orbit (LEO). Bezos first revealed the launch plans for New Glenn in 2016. After 9 years, Bezos' dream is set to be realized.
The first test flight of New Glenn is expected to last about 6 hours. Instead of actual commercial satellites or payloads, it will carry a dummy payload called "Blue Ring Pathfinder." This is a model of the multipurpose spacecraft Blue Ring, which Blue Origin is preparing to carry future customers' payloads, and it is equipped with communication equipment, power systems, and flight computers. Weighing about 20 tons, it is approximately half the weight that New Glenn can carry to low Earth orbit.
Blue Origin plans to land the first stage rocket on a drone ship named "Jacklyn," which is stationed in the Atlantic Ocean, for recovery alongside the New Glenn launch. Jacklyn is named after Bezos' mother. A Blue Origin official noted, "Blue Ring Pathfinder will verify communication functions from orbit to ground and test remote sensing, tracking, command systems, and ground-based radio tracking capabilities. This system will be applied to the actual Blue Ring spacecraft in the future."
The first flight of New Glenn is attracting attention from the global space industry because it could disrupt SpaceX's dominance. Elon Musk's SpaceX launched 131 rockets last year, averaging a launch every three days. Of those 131 launches, 128 were with the reused Falcon 9 rocket, which has a success rate of 99%. SpaceX's Falcon 9 can be reused for the first stage up to 24 times. SpaceX has effectively monopolized the global launch market by overwhelming competitors that have yet to acquire reusable rocket technology in terms of expense.
New Glenn is a more advanced rocket compared to Falcon 9. With a height of 98 meters, it is larger than the 70-meter Falcon 9. In terms of payload capacity, New Glenn can carry 45 tons, which is double that of Falcon 9's 23 tons. As SpaceX's next-generation rocket, Starship, is not yet in the commercialization stage, if New Glenn's launch succeeds, the launch market could be shared between SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Ahn Hyung-jun, head of the space public team at the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI), said, "For a while, there were no challengers to SpaceX, but now with the arrival of New Glenn, I believe it will provide competition to SpaceX, even though gaps may still exist." He noted that, "SpaceX and Blue Origin had been in a lull after a previous bout of rivalry over space tourism, but the competitive landscape is becoming interesting again concerning commercial launch vehicles."
The emergence of New Glenn signifies heightened competition not only in the launch vehicle sector but also in the low Earth orbit communication satellite market. SpaceX primarily launched Starlink, a low Earth orbit communication satellite, using the Falcon 9 rocket. It is estimated that over 6,000 Starlink satellites are currently in low Earth orbit, with SpaceX's goal being to increase that to 12,000 by 2027.
Bezos is preparing "Project Kuiper," a low Earth orbit satellite service that will compete with SpaceX's Starlink through Amazon. To achieve Project Kuiper, more than 3,000 satellites need to be placed in low Earth orbit, and New Glenn is expected to play a critical role. The success of New Glenn's launch is pivotal for both the commercial launch vehicle market and the low Earth orbit satellite communication service market.
As the competition for reusable launch vehicles between SpaceX and Blue Origin intensifies, South Korea has declared 2025 as the inaugural year for reusable launch vehicle development and has begun developing key technologies. The Korea Space Agency has initiated related research and development (R&D) projects, and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), Hyundai Rotem, INNOSPACE, and Perigee Aerospace have formed a consortium for reusable launch vehicle development.