An analysis said recently that Starbucks' estimated card payments trailed A TWOSOME PLACE for three straight months, prompting interpretations that the industry leader has changed. However, industry officials noted that it is a stretch to interpret this as an actual change in market ranking or a reversal in sales.
According to the restaurant industry on the 6th, based on IGAworks Mobile Index data, Starbucks' estimated credit and debit card payments in on the 7th were 110.06 billion won, about 7 billion won less than A TWOSOME PLACE's 117.05 billion won. A TWOSOME PLACE outpaced Starbucks for three straight months from May to July, when Starbucks became embroiled in the so-called "May 18 marketing controversy."
On the surface, it appears that A TWOSOME PLACE has overtaken Starbucks, but the figure is an "estimated payment amount" calculated based on credit and debit card authorization data. As a result, there may be a gap with actual sales, which reflect all payment methods not captured in card authorization data.
In particular, Starbucks is characterized by having a larger share of its own payment ecosystem than other coffee brands. Many customers use the Starbucks Card, a proprietary prepaid card, and as a result, the share of Siren Order, the mobile app ordering service, is known to be over 40% of all orders.
If card payment has already occurred at the time of reloading a Starbucks Card or purchasing a mobile gift certificate, there is no separate card authorization record when it is used in stores. Even if real consumption occurs, it is not captured again in Mobile Index's card authorization data.
Starbucks products also rank high in KakaoTalk Gift. As of the 6th, Starbucks products held all of the top four spots in the KakaoTalk Gift cafe category rankings, and three Starbucks products were included in the overall top 10 for vouchers. Industry officials also believe that this kind of gift certificate consumption is hard to fully reflect in actual consumption scale using only card authorization data.
There is also talk that differences in business structure should be considered. Starbucks operates all stores directly, so consumer sales are reflected directly in company revenue. In contrast, according to the 2025 franchise business disclosure by the Korea Fair Trade Commission, A TWOSOME PLACE has 1,510 franchise stores, accounting for 90.4% of its 1,670 total stores. With a high franchise share, headquarters revenue mainly reflects materials and supplies supply and royalties. This means it is hard to compare consumer payment amounts and headquarters' accounting revenue on the same basis.
In fact, SCK Company, which operates Starbucks, posted revenue of 3.238 trillion won and operating profit of 173 billion won last year. A TWOSOME PLACE recorded revenue of 582.4 billion won and operating profit of 36.3 billion won last year. However, A TWOSOME PLACE has said that, based on its internal tally, consumer payments topped 1.0874 trillion won for the first time last year. Given these business structure differences, the industry believes it is difficult to conclude that "the market No. 1 has changed" based on estimated card payments alone.
A restaurant industry official said, "Estimated card payment data are meaningful as a reference indicator to gauge consumption trends or market sentiment, but they do not directly show the actual scale of business or market position," adding, "Since payment methods and business structures differ by brand, simple comparisons can lead to overinterpretation."
Still, some say the change in card payment amounts itself should not be taken lightly. After the marketing controversy in May, Starbucks' payment amount fell and then showed some recovery in July, but with police recently conducting a raid on headquarters, brand risk could resurface. Police have launched a compulsory investigation into the promotion planning and decision-making process based on suspicions of deficiencies in the company's internal audit.
The industry views the restoration of brand trust going forward as more important than short-term rankings by payment amount. Separate from interpretations surrounding the political controversy, the brand image that consumers perceive can have a greater impact on long-term performance and retaining loyal customers.
Professor Lee Jong-woo of Namseoul University's Department of Distribution and Marketing said, "Separate from assessments of the political controversy, it is clear that the brand value Starbucks has built over a long period has taken a major hit from this controversy," adding, "Because it is not easy to erase a once-imprinted negative image, it is important to restore customer trust through consistent and sincere efforts."