As the consumer boycott and other fallout continue over Starbucks Korea's "5/18 'Tank Day'" marketing controversy, expectations for this year's earnings at SCK Company, which operates Starbucks Korea, are also being lowered. Since the controversy, payment amounts have continued to decline, and even refunds of prepaid balances are underway, increasing uncertainty around full-year results. One securities firm has cut its estimate for SCK Company's 2026 operating profit to about half of its previous projection.
According to the securities industry on the 9th, Kiwoom Securities lowered its estimate for SCK Company's 2026 operating profit in a recent E-MART report to 98.3 billion won from 180.4 billion won. That is a decrease of 82.1 billion won from the previous forecast, or 45.5%. Kiwoom Securities also cut its estimate for SCK Company's 2027 operating profit by 30.6% to 136.3 billion won from 196.5 billion won.
Revenue expectations fell as well. Kiwoom Securities projected SCK Company's 2026 revenue at 3.437 trillion won in a report on the 14th, but in a report released on the 8th after the Tank Day incident, it lowered that to 3.09 trillion won, down 10.1%. The 2027 revenue estimate was also cut 10.7% to 3.208 trillion won from 3.592 trillion won.
Park Sang-jun, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said, "According to media reports, Starbucks Korea's sales are known to have fallen about 26% compared with before the Tank Day event," and "we adjusted our forecast to reflect the deterioration in visibility for SCK Company's results due to the Tank Day event controversy."
Heungkuk Securities also lowered its earnings outlook for SCK Company. In a report on the 15th, Heungkuk Securities estimated SCK Company's 2026 revenue and operating profit at 3.342 trillion won and 171 billion won, respectively. However, in a report on the 27th of the same month, it cut its estimates to 3.185 trillion won in revenue and 156 billion won in operating profit, down 4.7% and 8.8%, respectively. Park Jong-ryeol, an analyst at Heungkuk Securities, said, "We reflected the decline in scale and the slowdown in profitability due to the Starbucks boycott."
Starbucks' sales decline is showing indirectly through payment indicators. According to IGAworks Mobile Index, Starbucks' estimated weekly credit and debit card payments fell from 32.16 billion won during the 11th–17th to 23.69 billion won during the 18th–24th, when the Tank Day controversy surfaced. It then decreased again to 21.46 billion won during the 25th–31st. Compared with the week before the controversy, it was down 33.3% in two weeks.
Amid this situation, refunds of prepaid balances that customers had loaded in advance onto the Starbucks app or card have emerged as another variable for results. Starbucks Korea temporarily eased the criteria for refunds of Starbucks prepaid card balances for two weeks from the 1st to the 14th of this month. Previously, a refund of the remaining balance was allowed only after using at least 60% of the last recharge amount, but during this period, customers can get their remaining balance back upon request regardless of the usage ratio.
According to SCK Company's audit report, as of the end of last year the size of prepaid balances reached 427.6 billion won, up 8.2% from a year earlier. Park said, "Given that refunds of prepaid card balances are taking place in June, there remains a possibility that second-quarter results could deteriorate further."
As expectations for Starbucks Korea's results decline, the burden is growing on the consolidated earnings outlook of E-MART, the largest shareholder. Kiwoom Securities, reflecting the deterioration in visibility for SCK Company's results, cut E-MART's forecast for this year's consolidated operating profit by 13.5% to 526 billion won from 608 billion won. Heungkuk Securities also lowered E-MART's estimate for this year's consolidated operating profit by 6.2% to 529.3 billion won from 564.3 billion won.
Meanwhile, Starbucks Korea is seeking renewal by naming Shin Dong-woo, head of support at Shinsegae Property, as the new chief the previous day. The new chief designate Shin previously served as head of strategy planning at Starbucks Korea, and most recently oversaw strategy and finance as head of support and chief financial officer at Shinsegae Property. A Shinsegae Group official said, "While focusing capabilities on strengthening the operating system and internal controls, we will prioritize devising renewal measures to restore trust based on sincere communication with partners and customers."
Shinsegae Group Chair Chung Yong-jin is also stepping to the forefront of key affiliates, signaling a commitment to accountable management. Chung aims to realize full accountable management as a legally registered executive director participating on company boards, serving as CEO of E-MART and Shinsegae Property. Chung said, "We take seriously the market's demand to take clear responsibility for company management," and "going forward, as CEO, I will be subject to evaluation by the board and shareholders."