There is still about a month and a half left until Chobok (July 15), but samgyetang prices are already stirring. With chicken prices soaring to the highest level in 15 years, combined with the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI), increased summer demand, and rising cost burdens, concerns are growing that the "20,000-won era for samgyetang" may become a reality this summer.
According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation's Agricultural Products Distribution Information (KAMIS) on the 29th, the average retail price of broiler chicken this month is 6,505 won per kilogram, up about 19.2% from the same period last year (5,455 won). Last month, broiler prices reached 6,582 won, marking a record high in about 15 years since April 2011 (6,911 won).
Samgyetang prices are also on the rise. According to the Korea Consumer Agency (KCA)'s Price Right Now, last month's average price of samgyetang in Seoul was 18,154 won. That is up 3.73% from the same period last year (17,500 won). Samgyetang prices topped 17,000 won in July 2024 and exceeded 18,000 won in August last year. Some samgyetang specialty restaurants are reportedly selling a basic bowl for 20,000 won.
The biggest backdrop to the rise in chicken prices is seen as supply instability due to a contraction in production capacity. The base for chicken production was undermined after more than 300,000 broiler breeders were culled due to the impact of highly pathogenic AI that occurred last winter. Broiler breeders are parent stock chickens that underpin broiler production. While this does not immediately reduce the number of broilers supplied to the market, it cannot be ruled out as a risk factor for future supply and demand because the production base itself has been affected. In addition, maritime freight rates and international grain price volatility have increased due to geopolitical tensions originating in the Middle East, likely adding to feed cost burdens.
Rising summer demand is another factor pushing up prices. Chicken consumption, including samgyetang and fried chicken, is seasonally concentrated in the sweltering summer, and with the heat arriving earlier than usual this year, there are projections that demand from consumers seeking nourishing foods in hot weather could be brought forward compared with previous years.
A food industry official said, "As chicken is a representative summer consumption item, prices respond sensitively as demand increases," adding, "With supply risk factors still in place, prices will inevitably become more burdensome if the peak season, including Boknal, overlaps."
This is not just about chicken prices. The overall cost burden across the restaurant industry is cited as another variable pushing up samgyetang prices. In addition to chicken prices, the costs of auxiliary ingredients such as glutinous rice, garlic, and ginseng, as well as labor, rent, and electricity and gas bills, are piling up.
Within the industry, there are voices saying that if cost pressures persist, it will be hard to rule out additional price hikes. A restaurant industry official said, "Not only chicken but also the burden of various ingredients and public utility charges continues to grow," adding, "Even if we want to keep prices steady, it is difficult to absorb the scale of cost increases."
To stabilize supply and demand in the summer, the government is pursuing an emergency quota tariff on 30,000 tons (t) of chicken and has also moved to expand additional imports of hatching eggs for broilers. However, with the AI impact, peak-season demand, and restaurant cost burdens continuing simultaneously, the industry does not expect prices to stabilize quickly.
A food industry official said, "Although the government's supply and demand stabilization measures are being implemented, it is the time when chicken demand begins to increase in earnest ahead of the peak season, including Boknal, so price stabilization in the short term will not be easy," adding, "For the time being, the cost burden on the restaurant and food industries surrounding samgyetang and fried chicken is likely to continue."