With the government releasing the 6th National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan (2026-2030) recently, the idea of raising cigarette prices has resurfaced. The plan sets a direction to strengthen price regulations to reduce the use of tobacco products. After related details were reported, the Ministry of Health and Welfare drew a line, saying, "We are not currently reviewing a cigarette price increase," while still leaving room for a hike, saying, "We will review it after gathering social opinions."
Cigarette prices in Korea have been frozen for more than 10 years since they were raised in 2015. Compared with major advanced countries, the price level is relatively low, and academia has consistently called for a price increase. Accordingly, there is a view that after the June local elections, the government will find it hard to avoid revisiting a cigarette price hike if it aims to achieve its mid- to long-term smoking rate targets.
According to the government on the 1st, the Ministry of Health and Welfare recently convened the National Health Promotion Policy Deliberation Committee and reviewed and approved the "6th National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan (2026-2030)." The detailed implementation plan includes a measure to raise cigarette prices by increasing the health promotion levy to the average level of member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as released by the World Health Organization (WHO).
As of 2023, the average OECD cigarette price was tallied at 9,869 won per pack. In contrast, Korea raised the average price per pack from 2,500 won to 4,500 won in 2015 and has kept it fixed for more than 10 years.
The government set a goal of lowering the adult smoking rate, at 28.5% for men and 4.2% for women in 2024, to 25% and 4% respectively by 2030. However, some analyses say that as cigarette prices have been frozen for a long time, smokers' willingness to quit has instead weakened.
According to the "2024 National Health Statistics" from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, 12.7% of smokers aged 19 and older answered that they had a plan to quit within one month, the lowest in 20 years since 2005. With prices fixed for more than a decade, there is an interpretation that the price policy's function of inducing smoking cessation has also weakened.
Academia has also continuously argued that raising cigarette prices is necessary to reduce smoking rates. According to a paper by Kim Hana, a doctoral researcher at the Seoul National University Graduate School of Public Health, who tracked and analyzed more than 2 million adult smokers using health checkup data from the National Health Insurance Service, the number of smokers who switched to quitting increased after cigarette price hikes in 2005 and 2015. In particular, in 2015, when the price increase was large, the annual quit rate rose 5.3 percentage points (p), from 11.2% in 2014 to 16.5% in 2015.
Kim said, "It has already been 10 years since Korea's last cigarette price hike," adding, "It cannot be justified to delay strong tobacco control measures, including price increases, any longer, and resolute action is needed."
Some, however, note that cigarette price hikes did not produce as great an effect as expected. In fact, the adult male smoking rate plunged from 43.2% in 2014 to 39.4% in 2015, but in 2016, after the price increase, it rebounded slightly to 40.7%. Academia sees this not as meaning the price increase itself was meaningless, but as a result of follow-up price adjustments not being made for a long period. In addition, the initial effect did not last long because non-price policies—such as expanding indoor no-smoking areas, regulating advertising and promotions, and supporting smoking cessation treatment—were not sufficiently combined.
According to a study, "Exploring strategies to achieve the 2030 National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan male smoking rate target using SimSmoke," published in 2023 in the Journal of the Korean Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco by a research team from the Institute of Health and Environment and the Graduate School of Public Health at Seoul National University, if the government implements various non-price policies together and raises cigarette prices by 10% each year, the 2030 cigarette price would reach about 8,769 won, and the male smoking rate would decline to 24.7%.
The research team also estimated that if the government does not strengthen non-price policies, the male smoking rate would fall to 25.2% only if cigarette prices are raised by 30% each year, reaching about 28,239 won in 2030.
In the end, if a cigarette price hike is a one-off measure, its effect may weaken, but analyses say the smoking rate can be steadily reduced by strengthening price policies and non-price regulations together.
The research team suggested, "To achieve the 2030 smoking rate target, the government needs to strengthen public communication on cigarette price hikes to secure a base of popular support, and on that basis pursue more proactive and bold policies."