Concerns are emerging that government and market expectations that rice prices will stabilize when the new-crop rice comes out in October may be off the mark. Prices of fresh produce such as napa cabbage and apples are also increasingly likely to rise. The culprit is an unseasonal autumn rainy spell.
According to the retail industry on the 17th, the three big-box chains (Lotte Mart, Emart, Homeplus) are closely watching recent rice price trends. As the timing for new-crop rice production has been delayed more than expected, the cooling of the sharp run-up in rice prices does not look easy. Breweries that make alcohol with rice are also worried. An employee at one brewery said, "We keep getting notices from the local agricultural cooperative that rice is in short supply, so we are just waiting for the new-crop rice to ship. We're worried because we're told harvest work is not easy due to the rain."
The delay in shipping new-crop rice is due to the autumn rainy season. With rain continuing before and after the Chuseok holiday, harvesting has been pushed back. When it rains a lot, ears of rice stick to the harvester, making normal work impossible. Lodging, where rice plants fall over sideways, is also occurring.
Focusing on Daejeon and South Chungcheong, the number of rainy days in October has reached 13, and cumulative precipitation is about twice the normal level. Conditions in Gangwon Province are similar. As of 16th, according to the Korea meteorological Administration's open weather data portal, it rained in Gangneung for 14 days in October. As a result, 61% of the rice cultivation area (538 hectares) in Samcheok has not yet begun harvesting. Of this, 23.6 hectares (4%) reportedly suffered lodging damage. In Gangneung, areas where rice has not been harvested also amount to 30% of the total cultivated area.
An employee at a local agricultural cooperative said, "You have to drain the paddies and dry the rice to some extent to harvest, but with the rain continuing, there isn't enough time to get to harvesting." According to Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT) Agricultural Products Distribution Information (KAMIS), as of 15th, the retail price of rice was 67,351 won for 20 kilograms. That is up 27% from the same period last year (52,980 won).
Rice is not the only problem. Because the autumn rainy season is limiting sunshine, orchards that mainly grow apples are also deeply concerned. Not only is sugar content falling, but color is inevitably an issue. Apples with high sugar content and a red hue fetch good prices, but if rain continues, grades inevitably fall. Reports of fruit drop and splitting are also coming in one after another.
Napa cabbage prices are also rising. According to aT, the price per head of napa cabbage is 6,641 won, up 44.4% from three months ago (4,443 won). With the rain continuing, some cabbage heads are rotting inside. In Gangwon, a key napa cabbage-growing region, autumn precipitation has been tallied at 1.8 times the usual level. Relative humidity was 82%, the highest since records began in 1973.
The three big-box chains are closely watching fresh food price trends due to the autumn rainy season. A Lotte Mart official said, "As the autumn rains drag on, we are examining which crops have been affected," adding, "We are consistently collecting information on origin prices and quality and responding accordingly."
A fresh food merchandiser at a major big-box chain said, "Last year we only had to focus on napa cabbage supply, but this year there are concerns that abnormal weather could hit all fresh foods," adding, "Overall difficulties are growing."