If the rise in Seoul apartment prices continues, the scope of the comprehensive real estate tax could spread beyond the Gangnam area to most parts of Seoul, according to an analysis. While 19 districts currently have complexes subject to the comprehensive real estate tax, the number is estimated to increase to 22 districts by 2030, excluding Gangbuk, Geumcheon, and Dobong.
This is the result of an analysis by People Power Party lawmaker Shin Dong-wook of the National Policy Committee on the 6th, based on a simulation model submitted by KB Kookmin Bank, covering a total of 125 apartments in the 34-pyeong type across the top five complexes by KB market price in each of Seoul's 25 districts.
Among those analyzed, complexes subject to the comprehensive real estate tax this year number 78 across 19 districts. Assuming Seoul apartment prices continue to post the annual rise of 11% recorded from June 2025 to May this year, the number of complexes subject to tax on a non-owner-occupied basis would increase to 101 across 22 districts in 2030.
Even in Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang, where all five of those surveyed complexes are currently exempt from the comprehensive real estate tax, new taxable complexes would emerge. Of the 47 complexes that do not pay the tax now, 23 would newly fall under taxation by 2030.
By area, four complexes each would be added in Gangseo, Gwanak, Guro, and Eunpyeong, three in Seongbuk, two in Jongno, and one each in Nowon and Jungnang, newly becoming subject to the comprehensive real estate tax.
In the case of the 35-pyeong DMC SK View in Eunpyeong, there is currently no comprehensive real estate tax burden, but in the simulation it becomes taxable on a non-owner-occupied basis starting in 2029, leading to about 1.13 million won in comprehensive real estate tax in 2030.
The number of taxable complexes temporarily fell right after the government's tax reform but then showed an increasing trend as home price gains accumulated. On a non-owner-occupied basis, taxable complexes are estimated to decrease from 78 this year to 68 in 2027, but then rise to 82 in 2028, 94 in 2029, and 101 in 2030.
The increase in the tax burden was greater than the expansion of taxable targets.
Reflecting the total number of households across the 125 complexes, comprehensive real estate tax levies are analyzed to rise 8.9 times, from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won in 2030 on a non-owner-occupied basis. On an owner-occupied basis, the total increases to 334.7 billion won over the same period, 5.7 times this year's level.
A simple average of the comprehensive real estate tax per home rises from 951,338 won this year to 8,428,401 won in 2030 on a non-owner-occupied basis. The average tax on an owner-occupied basis is also calculated to increase to 5,549,778 won.
In particular, the increase was notable in non-Gangnam areas, where the current comprehensive real estate tax burden is relatively small.
The total comprehensive real estate tax for major complexes in Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang is estimated to rise from about 720,000 won this year to about 40.58 million won in 2030 on a non-owner-occupied basis. That is an increase of about 56.6 times.
Even if the pace of home price growth slows to half the current speed, the comprehensive real estate tax burden increases.
Assuming Seoul apartment prices rise 5.5% annually going forward, the non-owner-occupied taxable pool in 2030 is analyzed to be 82 complexes across 19 districts. Among currently tax-exempt complexes, four would newly pay the comprehensive real estate tax, all located in Gangseo.
In this case, the total comprehensive real estate tax across the 125 complexes reaches 292.6 billion won in 2030 on a non-owner-occupied basis, about five times this year, and 171.9 billion won on an owner-occupied basis, 2.9 times.
For the 34-pyeong Godeok Gracium in Gangdong, the comprehensive real estate tax is about 570,000 won this year, but if home prices rise 5.5% each year, it is estimated to climb to about 2.88 million won in 2030 on a non-owner-occupied basis. Under the 11% annual rise scenario, it increases to about 6.59 million won.
This analysis reflects the government's comprehensive real estate tax reform plan and its revisions, applying from 2027 a basic deduction of 1.4 billion won for owner-occupied homes and 1.2 billion won for non-owner-occupied homes. It assumes a fair market value ratio of 70% and a tax burden cap of 150%.
Shin said, "Although parts of the government's tax reform plan were revised, it brought great confusion to the real estate market," adding, "going forward, the comprehensive real estate tax will effectively become a 'Seoul citizen tax' imposed even on ordinary people in Seoul who own just one home."