Amid continued worries about a shortage of dwellings supply in Seoul, major supply indicators improved across the board last month. However, the level is still not enough to fill the supply gap that has built up, so it will take time before people feel that actual dwelling supply conditions have improved.
According to the "July 2026 dwelling statistics" from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 31st, dwelling building permits in Seoul last month were 7,979 units, up 95.1% from the same period a year earlier (4,089 units). That is a higher growth rate than the nationwide permits increase of 59.6% over the same period.
Groundbreakings increased by an even larger margin. In July, dwelling groundbreakings in Seoul were 6,386 units, up 894.7% from the same month last year (642 units). The base effect reflects how few groundbreakings there were in July last year. The rise was clear even when looking only at apartments. Seoul apartment groundbreakings were 5,574 units last month, up 1,905% from July last year (278 units).
Pre-sales also rose sharply. In Seoul, the number of multifamily dwellings offered for pre-sale in July was 716 units, up 104.0% from 351 units last year. However, the absolute volume itself did not reach even 1,000 units, leading to the view that the high growth rate in pre-sales stems from a base effect due to last year's short supply of pre-sale offerings.
Completions, which lead directly to move-ins and are classified as a short-term supply indicator, also increased from last year. In July, dwelling completions in Seoul were 5,756 units, up 8.9% from 5,286 units last year. Of these, apartment completions were 5,352 units, up 8.8% from 4,919 units a year earlier.
Analysts say it is still early to judge that Seoul's dwellings market has entered a supply recovery phase based on just the one-month improvement in July supply indicators. While mid- to long-term supply indicators improved, they are not enough to make up for the accumulated decline in supply, and short-term supply indicators that can be felt immediately in move-in volumes are still lagging.
From January to July this year, dwelling permits in Seoul totaled 28,634 units, up 6.1% from the same period a year earlier. Groundbreakings and pre-sales were 19,507 units and 14,489 units, up 44.4% and 109.7%, respectively. By contrast, completions were 20,916 units, down 43.3%. In particular, apartment completions in Seoul were 17,603 units, down 48.7% from the same period a year earlier.
Nationwide, indicators were mixed across the stages of dwellings supply. At the front end of supply, permits nationwide last month were 25,717 units, up 59.6% from a year earlier. In contrast, groundbreakings were 20,378 units, down 4.8%, and pre-sales were 18,833 units, down 17.2%. Completions were 31,778 units, up 24.3%.
◇ Dwellings sales transactions slow… unsold units rise again
Dwellings transactions slowed somewhat in July. Nationwide dwellings sales transactions totaled 63,185, down 8.2% from the previous month and 1.6% from July last year. In Seoul, total dwellings sales in July were 10,852, down 10.3% from a month earlier and 16.8% from July last year. For Seoul apartments, transactions last month were 6,564, down 15.2% from 7,742 in June and 22.6% from 8,485 in July last year.
The jeonse and monthly rental market also saw fewer transactions. Nationwide jeonse and monthly rent transactions in July totaled 210,985, down 3.5% from the previous month and 13.5% from the same month last year. Seoul recorded 67,067, down 9.0% from a year earlier.
Jeonse transactions fell faster than monthly rent transactions. Nationwide jeonse transactions were 68,462, plunging 22.3% from last year, while monthly rent transactions were 142,523, down only 8.6%. As a result, as of the July year-to-date, the share of monthly rent in nationwide dwellings lease transactions was 68.3%, up 6.5 percentage points from 61.8% in the same period last year. In Seoul, the share of monthly rent also rose from 63.8% to 69.7%.
Unsold dwellings increased again. At the end of July, nationwide unsold dwellings were 68,217 units, up 1.1% from the previous month (67,464 units). In the Seoul metropolitan area, unsold units rose 3.7% in a month, from 18,770 to 19,459. Outside the metropolitan area, they edged up 0.1%, from 48,694 to 48,758. About 71% of all unsold units are concentrated in the provinces.
However, unsold units after completion, known as "toxic unsold" because they remain even after construction is finished, decreased slightly. Nationwide post-completion unsold units at the end of July were 29,152, down 2.1% from the previous month (29,786). Of these, 4,444 were in the metropolitan area and 24,708 outside it, with about 85% of post-completion unsold units concentrated in the provinces.