As the government and the Seoul city government face off over supplying youth rental housing inside Yongsan Park, a report by the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) saying that young people living in public rentals are more likely to marry than owner-occupiers is drawing renewed attention. The report analyzed that the marriage incidence among public rental residents age 30 and under was 2.69 times higher than among owner-occupiers. However, some noted that it is difficult to conclude that the statistical association is a direct effect of public rentals.
On the 22nd, a report titled "The impact of demographic transition on the real estate market and future tasks," released in May by the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS), was shared on real estate-related online communities and social media (SNS). Interest appears to have resurfaced as the government considers a plan to supply youth and newlywed rental housing on part of Yongsan Park.
Researcher Park Jin-baek and colleagues at the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) analyzed the relationship between housing type and marriage and childbirth using detailed data from the Seoul housing conditions survey. They used Cox survival analysis controlling for age and gender, income, regular employment status, housing type, education, and area of residence.
The analysis found that when people age 30 and under live in public rentals, the marriage hazard ratio is 2.692. The research team interpreted this as a 169.2% higher probability of marriage than among owner-occupiers. For those 35 and under, it was 57.3% higher, and for those 40 and under, 40.3% higher.
The hazard ratio is the relative incidence of reaching marriage at a given point among those not yet married. It does not mean the actual share of people who married was 169.2% higher. The result for those 35 and under in public rentals has a 10% statistical significance level, so caution is needed in interpretation.
Among private rental residents, the marriage hazard ratio was 16.4% higher than among owner-occupiers across all ages. In contrast, owner-occupiers were 19.2% lower than renters. However, among those 30 and under, no statistically significant difference was found.
For childbirth, there was no significant difference when housing was classified only as owned or rented. When rentals were divided into public and private, public rentals showed a positive association with childbirth, while private rentals showed a negative association. The positive association for public rentals grew as the floor area increased.
Associate Research Fellow Park said, "In areas with high dwelling prices like Seoul, securing ownership with excessive loans can burden family formation," adding, "There is a need to expand the supply of mid-to-large public rental dwellings for youth."
However, in the published analysis tables, asset and liability, parental economic capacity, and marriage plans were not presented as control variables. It is also possible that a life-cycle pattern—where young people preparing for marriage rent before purchasing dwellings—was reflected. The need to expand public rentals and the issue of using Yongsan Park as a supply site are separate matters. This study did not analyze the feasibility of developing Yongsan Park or site-specific effects.