A survey found that more than half of the public expects home prices to rise in the second half of this year (July–December). Most respondents cited rising apartment prices in Seoul's core areas and a shortage of supply in major downtowns as reasons for higher prices.
On the 29th, Real Estate R114 said that 56% of respondents in its "2026 second-half dwellings market outlook" survey expected sales prices of dwellings to rise in the second half. The survey was conducted online from the 13th to the 22nd of this month with 1,602 people nationwide, and the margin of error is ±2.45 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The share projecting a rise in home prices in the second-half survey increased by 4 percentage points from the first half. By contrast, the share expecting a decline fell by 4 percentage points to 10%, and the share expecting prices to hold steady was unchanged at 34%.
As for reasons for expecting price increases, 32.33% of respondents answered "rising apartment prices in core areas," the largest share. Next, "worsening supply shortages in major downtowns such as Seoul (16.95%)" was also cited as a key factor. Real Estate R114 noted, "In Seoul recently, not only in core areas but also in mid- to low-priced areas, there are more transaction cases exceeding previous peaks," adding, "Expectations that the rise in home prices in core areas will spread across Seoul, coupled with concerns about supply shortages in preferred areas, influenced the outlook for higher prices."
Among respondents expecting home prices to fall, 34.55% viewed "weakened buying momentum due to lending regulations" as the biggest reason. Potential economic downturn (18.18%), an increase in listings for sale due to interest and tax burdens (14.55%), and the impact of lending rate burdens (12.12%) were also cited as reasons for a decline.
A larger share also expected rental prices to rise in the second half. The outlook for jeonse price increases rose from 57.75% in the first half to 61.86% in the second half, and the outlook for monthly rent increases rose from 60.91% to 65.04%.
Among respondents expecting jeonse prices to rise, one-third projected that weakened buying sentiment will increase jeonse demand, pushing up jeonse prices. With the government's tightening stance on lending regulations continuing, this suggests that end users will delay buying homes and stay in the jeonse market, expanding demand.
Concerns about a shortage of jeonse listings due to landlords' preference for monthly rent and a lack of move-in supply in key areas were also cited as reasons for rising jeonse prices. By contrast, among those expecting jeonse prices to fall, 22.12% anticipated that the government's measures to stabilize the jeonse market would be effective.
Meanwhile, many cited "external economic conditions such as the pace of domestic and global economic recovery (37.45%)" and "whether the Bank of Korea raises its base rate (37.33%)" as key variables for the property market in the second half. Whether there are changes in the regulatory environment for real estate such as lending and taxes (34.58%), the current administration's large-scale supply of dwellings policy (public housing site development) (25.22%), and whether instability persists in the rental market such as jeonse and monthly rent prices (22.47%) were also cited as variables.
Real Estate R114 has conducted an online survey titled "first- and second-half dwellings market outlook" twice a year since 2008.