Housing developers' expectations for the nationwide apartment presales market rebounded sharply in a month.
On the 7th, a survey (June 17–26) by the Korea Housing Institute of housing developers found that the July apartment presales outlook index came to 87.6, up 18.2 points (p) from the previous month. Both the greater Seoul area (84.3→102.5) and non-metropolitan areas (66.2→84.4) rose 18.2p each, suggesting overall improvement in the presales market mood.
The recovery in the greater Seoul area is especially clear. Incheon recorded the largest increase at 20.7p (72.4→93.1), followed by Gyeonggi 19.4p (80.6→100.0) and Seoul 14.3p (100.0→114.3). Seoul's presales outlook index surged to 114.3, far surpassing the baseline (100) that indicates a supply advantage.
A Korea Housing Institute official said, "This appears to reflect the growing scarcity of new apartments amid locked-up listings and supply shortages, along with expectations that rental strains will shift demand to purchases," adding, "As some rental demand moves to purchases, sentiment toward the presales market also seems to have improved." According to the Korea Real Estate Board (REB), Seoul's weekly apartment sales price index rose 0.3% in the fourth week of June, marking a 72-week upward streak.
Non-metropolitan regions also rebounded across the board. By region, Gwangju rose the most at 32.6p (55.6→88.2), followed by ▲ South Chungcheong 28.6p ▲ Daejeon 27.8p ▲ North Chungcheong 23.3p ▲ South Jeolla 20.0p ▲ North Jeolla 18.2p. Although the overall index for non-metropolitan areas still falls below the baseline (100), investor sentiment appears to have improved significantly, centered on Gwangju–South Jeolla and the Chungcheong region, where expectations for an economic pickup and large-scale development tailwinds are concentrated.
Meanwhile, the sharp rise in apartment presale prices is expected to lose some steam. The July presale price outlook index recorded 104.7, down 4.3p from the previous month. Expectations that construction cost pressures—which had been pushing up presale prices—will ease due to the recent turn in international oil prices were reflected. However, the index itself still remains above 100, and the industry views that the overall upward trend in presale prices has not been broken.
The presale volume outlook index came in at 93.8, up 1.2p from the previous month on the back of improved conditions in the subscription market. However, because July is a traditional off-season for presales, the increase was limited by seasonal factors.
The unsold inventory outlook index was found at 93.8, down 4.8p from the previous month. As the housing market shows signs of recovery centered on the greater Seoul area, some concerns over a buildup of unsold units have eased. However, because most "post-completion unsold" units—classified as hard-to-sell stock—are concentrated in the provinces, it is expected to take considerable time before the substantive unsold risk in non-metropolitan areas is resolved.