By 2036, 1 out of every 2 apartments in Seoul is expected to become an aged dwelling that has surpassed 30 years since completion. In Seoul, where new sites for building new apartments are effectively in short supply, reconstruction and redevelopment projects are the key means of housing supply. There are calls to swiftly normalize maintenance projects to respond to the increase in aged dwellings.
On the 12th, an analysis by the Korea Remodeling Convergence Association (KRC) of Seoul apartment data registered in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Apartment Management Information System (K-apt) projected that the share of aged dwellings more than 30 years since completion among Seoul apartments will rise from 28.2% this year to 48.3% in 2036. That means the roughly 490,000 aging apartments now will account for nearly half of all apartments in Seoul in 10 years.
KRC analyzed future aging trends based on the distribution of completion years of Seoul apartments. It expects the share of aged dwellings to rise quickly as large numbers of apartments supplied from the 1990s to the early 2000s surpass 30 years since completion over the next 10 years.
Industry officials cite prolonged delays in maintenance projects as the backdrop for the increase in aged dwellings in Seoul. In particular, analysts say the housing supply pipeline weakened after many New Town and redevelopment zones were lifted under the Seoul city government's urban regeneration policy line in the 2010s. On top of that, stricter safety diagnostics for reconstruction, the reconstruction excess profit recapture scheme, surging construction costs, and protracted permitting procedures have all combined to significantly slow the pace of maintenance projects.
The problem is that Seoul is a city where it is difficult to supply large-scale new housing sites. To increase housing supply, reconstruction and redevelopment are effectively indispensable. But as project delays repeat, aged dwellings keep piling up while new supply fails to keep pace, cementing this structure. Industry officials say that if this trend continues, the aging of Seoul's residential environment could accelerate.
In major overseas cities, there are many cases where multifamily dwellings more than 100 years old are kept in use through maintenance and repairs. In Korea, however, the eligible timing for reconstruction and the maintenance project framework have been designed around the 30-year mark since completion. As a result, the perception that "apartments 30 years or older since completion = aged dwellings" has taken root. In fact, older apartment complexes are revealing limits in residential performance, such as insufficient parking, aging pipes, noise between floors, and deteriorating insulation performance. This is why demand for maintenance projects continues to grow.
Industry officials stress that normalizing maintenance projects is necessary to stabilize Seoul's housing supply. Beyond easing reconstruction regulations and shortening procedures, they say a variety of maintenance methods, including remodeling, should be employed for complexes with weak profitability. Since it is difficult to address all aged complexes solely through reconstruction, there are also calls for options tailored to each complex's conditions.
Accordingly, remodeling is also being discussed as an alternative to alleviate the aged dwelling problem. According to KRC's tally, as of May this year, a total of 149 complexes nationwide, encompassing 120,188 households, are pursuing remodeling.
Shin Dong-woo, president of the Korea Remodeling Convergence Association, said, "Aged complexes in Seoul that have surpassed 30 years since completion number 490,000 households," adding, "It is not possible to solve all old apartments solely through reconstruction." Shin added, "An administrative support system is needed to back residents' choices so that complexes that choose reconstruction can proceed with reconstruction, and those that choose remodeling can proceed with remodeling."