After the resumption of the heavy capital gains tax on multi-home owners, clear signs of a "listing freeze" are emerging in the Seoul apartment market. Within two days of the policy taking effect, Seoul apartment listings fell by more than 2,800, stoking concerns in the market about a supply squeeze. The drop in listings was large in districts such as Gangdong, Seongbuk, Nowon, and Gangseo. Experts say multi-home owners facing higher tax burdens are pulling back fire-sale listings or delaying sales, reducing the number of properties coming to market.
According to the real estate big data app Asil on the 12th, as of the previous day there were 65,682 apartment listings in Seoul. That was down 4.2% (2,813) from the 9th (68,495), the last day of the grace period suspending the heavy capital gains tax on multi-home owners. During March and April, when multi-home owner listings increased, the number rose into the 70,000 range. Within Seoul, the decline in listings was steep in districts including Seongbuk (-21.4%), Guro (-20.2%), Dongjak (-19.5%), Gangdong (-18.8%), and Nowon (-18.4%).
The market sees multi-home owners retrieving failed fire-sale listings or raising asking prices and moving to the sidelines. Analysts say this is the early stage of a "listing freeze," where the number of properties available for transaction declines. A real estate expert said, "It is reasonable to view the current decline in listings as driven by multi-home owners," adding, "With tax burdens higher, many landlords are holding out rather than forcing a disposal."
Kim In-man, head of the Kim In-man Real Estate Research Institute, said, "The government said this time the listing freeze would not be significant, but in the market we are seeing both withdrawals of fire-sale listings and rising asking prices." Kim said, "Given the jeonse crunch, it is more likely that landlords will raise jeonse deposits or switch to monthly rent," adding, "Due to land transaction permits and the reduction of the long-term holding special deduction for non-resident single-home owners, quite a few landlords may opt to move in for actual residence."
Experts worry that if the listing freeze persists, the pattern seen under the Moon Jae-in administration—"listing cliff → jeonse crunch → home price gains"—could reemerge. If concerns about a supply shortfall grow, that could stoke buying sentiment. In particular, if fewer move-ins coincide with a jeonse crunch, price instability could spread, centering on the mid- to low-priced apartment market in Seoul.
However, some say this time it will not lead to a sharp price spike as in the past. That is because the government is reviewing measures to induce additional listings from non-resident single-home owners and registered rental business operators. Minister Kim Yun-duk of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport recently said, "We plan to review exceptions to land transaction permits for non-resident single-home owners," adding, "We will also examine the appropriateness of the permanent capital gains tax reduction benefits granted to rental business operators."
Park Won-gap, chief real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, "After the resumption of the heavy capital gains tax, a reduction in multi-home owner supply is inevitable, but it is hard to say it will immediately lead to a listing cliff and a sharp jump in home prices," adding, "The real estate market is one where various variables—interest rates, liquidity, lending regulations, and sentiment—interact in complex ways."