In the first quarter of this year, dwelling supply indicators such as groundbreakings and pre-sales in the greater Seoul area, including Seoul, improved from a year earlier. However, with other supply indicators—permits and completions—declining, the market views this as evidence that the dwelling supply problem has not been structurally resolved. The consensus is that, given last year's severe shortage and the resulting base effect, it is difficult to read this as a clear signal of actual supply expansion.
As the supply shortage persists as a trend, dwelling transactions to secure a home surged, especially in the greater Seoul area. Nationwide, the number of dark apartments at night edged down slightly, but the stock of seriously unsold units, centered in non-metropolitan regions, still hovered in the 30,000-unit range.
According to the March dwelling statistics the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport released on the 30th, first-quarter groundbreakings in the greater Seoul area totaled 22,204 units on a cumulative basis through March, up 14.1% from the same period a year earlier (17,706 units). Looking only at March, groundbreakings were 6,281 units, down 32.3% from a year earlier (9,272 units). In Seoul as well, cumulative groundbreakings through March were 5,011 units, up 7.4% from a year earlier (4,665 units).
Outside the greater Seoul area, 24,900 units broke ground in the first quarter, a 52.6% increase from the same period a year earlier (16,315 units).
Pre-sale results in the first quarter also improved. In the greater Seoul area, first-quarter pre-sales were 22,460 units, up 276.1% from a year earlier (5,972 units). During the same period, Seoul recorded 6,932 units in pre-sales, up 531.9% from a year earlier (1,097 units). Outside the greater Seoul area, pre-sales were 14,764 units, down 4.7% from the first quarter of last year (15,499 units).
While groundbreakings and pre-sales among dwelling supply indicators increased in the greater Seoul area, permits and completions declined. Dwelling permits in the greater Seoul area were 27,471 units, down 26.3% from a year earlier (37,276 units). During the same period, Seoul's first-quarter permits were also 27,471 units, down 26.3%. In non-metropolitan regions, permits totaled 22,658 units, down 21.1% from a year earlier.
Completions in the greater Seoul area were 28,360 units in the first quarter, down 36.0% from the same period last year. Seoul completed 7,381 units, down 29.8%. Non-metropolitan regions also declined 51.7% to 28,831 units.
In the market, the view is that although near-term dwelling supply increased based on these indicators, the structural supply shortage remains.
Amid supply shortage signals, dwelling sales transactions in March were 71,975, up 24.6% from the previous month and 7.0% from a year earlier. Seoul recorded 12,854, up 16.3% from the previous month but down 14.3% from a year earlier. During the same period, the greater Seoul area logged 35,556, up 22.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Non-metropolitan regions rose to 31,703, up 27.0% and 13.4%, respectively.
On a cumulative basis through March, transactions totaled 191,210, up 22.4% from a year earlier. By region, Seoul logged 30,048 sales in March, up 17.9% from a year earlier. The greater Seoul area rose 23.5% to 95,609, and non-metropolitan regions increased 21.2% to 95,601.
The total number of jeonse and monthly rent transactions in March was 279,688, up 10.4% from the previous month and 17.0% from a year earlier. The cumulative total for March (January–March) was 786,521, up 9.5% from a year earlier.
Unsold dwellings nationwide stood at 65,283 units at the end of March, down 1.4% from the previous month (66,208 units). Among them, unsold units after completion—classified as seriously unsold—were 30,429, down 2.8% from the previous month (31,307 units), but still above 30,000.