The share of Gyeonggi Province real estate purchases by Seoul residents hit a four-year high. The rise in Seoul home prices, surging jeonse and monthly rents, and tighter lending rules appear to be driving more people to choose to leave Seoul.
On the 13th, ZIGBANG CO. analyzed Supreme Court Registry Office ownership transfer (sale) data and said the share of Seoul residents who bought collective buildings in Gyeonggi Province last month was 15.69%. That was up 1.17 percentage points from the previous month's 14.52% and the highest since June 2022, when it was 16.28%, marking the biggest figure in about four years.
The share of Seoul residents buying in Gyeonggi, which had fallen to 9.32% at the end of 2024, has since traced a steady upward curve, rising about 6 percentage points from the low.
By contrast, the share of Gyeonggi residents buying Seoul real estate is on a decline. Last month, Gyeonggi residents accounted for 13.76% of purchases of collective buildings in Seoul, down 0.95 percentage points from 14.71% the previous month. Compared with the mid-last year level in the 16% range, buying interest has clearly cooled.
Analysts say a "buy-side asymmetry" structure is taking hold, with movement from Seoul to Gyeonggi growing more active while the path from Gyeonggi into Seoul narrows.
ZIGBANG CO. cited Seoul's high price barrier and financial regulations as reasons for the increase in Seoul residents' share of Gyeonggi real estate purchases. As Seoul home prices recover previous peaks or set new records and lending rules tighten, more buyers are turning to Gyeonggi Province, where entry barriers are relatively lower.
A ZIGBANG CO. official said, "As jeonse and monthly rent prices remain high, end users who feel the burden of renting are instead switching to purchases," adding, "Price burdens and the financial regulatory environment are intersecting, reshaping the paths of demand."
The "leaving Seoul" trend is likely to continue for the time being and settle as a new market structure.
A ZIGBANG CO. official said, "Depending on future interest rate levels and the intensity of lending regulations, this trend could become even more entrenched," forecasting, "Given the current point of heightened financial volatility, including exchange rates and interest rates, amid global economic uncertainty, end users need to view the market from a conservative perspective."