Thick dark clouds have gathered over the April apartment move-in outlook felt by dwelling developers, due to the end next month of the transfer income tax break for multiple-home owners and concerns about a prolonged Middle East war.
On the 9th, the Korea Housing Institute (KHI) said that, based on a survey of dwelling developers, the nationwide apartment move-in outlook index for April recorded 69.3, down 25.1 points from the previous month.
The move-in outlook index is an indicator that predicts the likelihood that buyers will pay the remaining balance as scheduled and move in. With 100 as the baseline, a lower figure means a more negative view of the market prevails.
This is the first time in 15 months that the nationwide index has plunged below 70, since January last year (68.4), when uncertainty peaked due to the impeachment political situation.
KHI said, "With the burden of rising dwelling mortgage lending rates, tighter regulations on bridge and final-payment loans for new apartments, and continued transaction weakness, policy and external uncertainties such as the end next month of the transfer tax break and concerns about a prolonged Middle East war appear to have been reflected, sharply lowering the move-in outlook."
The move-in outlook index for the greater Seoul area was 76.7, an expected drop of 20.0 points from the previous month.
By region, Seoul (93.5) fell 6.5 points, a relatively smaller decline. In contrast, Incheon (60.0, -32.5 points) and Gyeonggi (76.6, -23.4 points) saw larger drops.
In Seoul, KHI analyzed that decreases in listings and rising prices, centered on the northern outer districts where mid- to low-priced apartments of 1.5 billion won or less are concentrated, offset the decline in the move-in outlook for new apartments.
In the metropolitan cities, it was found at 73.2, down 26.8 points from the previous month. In particular, major cities showed clear declines, including Sejong (-37.3 points), Ulsan (-36.6 points), Daejeon (-33.4 points) and Busan (-30.0 points).
In the provincial regions (63.7), the outlook also worsened across all areas, with notable index declines in North Chungcheong (-40.9 points), South Chungcheong (-29.7 points) and Jeju (-29.4 points).
The sharp drop in the non-capital region index is interpreted as the result of concerns spreading in the market that, amid stronger regulations on multiple-home owners and a deepening preference for "one smart home," pressure to dispose of local dwellings will intensify.